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This page of the site contains the latest 10 articles to appear on bythom, followed by links to the archives.

Correctly Placing Blame

Okay, you went out took photos at an event or in a place of interest. You saw other photographers doing the same thing, so you naturally eventually sought out their images to see how they compared to yours. Your conclusion? Your images sucked. Now what?

I've seen multiple posts lately that assert or imply that their images failed compared to those of others because of a difference in gear. Worse still, some believe it was because of a different brand of gear. 

I suppose it's possible that other photographers were using better gear than you. Pro-grade lenses, in particular, can have a dramatic impact on what results can be produced. As much as I like, say, the Nikon 180-600mm f/5.6-6.3 VR lens, at both 400mm and even 560mm my 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S lens produces clearly better looking results, plus it has both light collection and background isolation capabilities I tend to take advantage of. Is Sony's 400mm f/2.8 lens better than mine? Well, it could use a built-in teleconverter, but at 400mm f/2.8 I'd take either lens and be happy. So in near apples-to-apples comparisons, I tend to say "it isn't the brand." 

The real question you have to ask yourself when you start doing the comparo thing is: what did I fail at?

It's important that you realize this as a failure. Failure isn't bad. That's not just my Silicon Valley start-up mentality speaking, it's a reality: failure is one of the best ways to learn. But only if you (a) can admit that you failed; and (b) figure out what caused the failure.

Let's talk about that (a) part for a moment. More often than not when I see someone comparing their images to others they simply won't admit to failure. It's their image in the competition, so they like their's better. Often they even won't listen to criticism from others because they believe so much of their ego is on the line. As far as I'm concerned, if you're open to criticism, I think you're a far better person than the one that simply insists that they have done something good and accepts no criticism.

So before we even get into reason for failure, are you even admitting you do?

I fail constantly. I get giddy when I don't fail because it happens so rarely.

How do I fail?

  • Not being in the right place at the right time. With both sports and wildlife, my two main pursuits these days, both things are critical to get the photo that everyone else will ooh and ahh over. In both sport venues and out in the wilds I'm constantly asking myself two questions: (1) am I in the right place, and (2) what do I expect to happen? If I can't answer those questions, I know I'm going to fail. Either that or I'm going to get damn lucky.
  • Not having the camera set right. You probably think of me as a grumpy old man constantly criticizing Nikon's control choices. All of those things are true, but the last one would still be true if I were a happy young woman. Photos are moments in time. You may be prepared for one thing to happen but another starts to occur and you need to reset your camera for that. If I can't do that with a quick button press and maybe a dial twirl, then Nikon has restricted me in a way they shouldn't. Bad Nikon!
  • Trying to do too many things. A pride of lions is on the hunt, what photo am I going to get? Well, I want one of everything! The stalker, ambusher, the chaser, the pull down, the bored male waiting for his meal, etc. If I'm lucky I'll get one of those. First, everything happens so fast and happens over such a large area, there's no way I can cover all those things. Second, lions are the fastest accelerators in Africa, so I'd better be fast on the shutter release. Don't like the wildlife example? Try sports. The team I'm covering is about to score and I know the play (yes, that happens when you follow a team closely and talk with the coaches). Do I cover the quarterback throwing the ball or the receiver catching the ball? I can't realistically do both these days, as sideline access is so packed you can't get the position where you might be able to do that. Now me being an analytical kind of guy, I say "receiver" because technically, he's the one that's scoring. Still, my point here is that if I think I'm going to do everything I'll probably get nothing.

I could go on, but you should be starting to understand the (b) part I described above. I'm always analyzing what exactly caused my failure. I should also point out that I might take 500-1000 images in a day's work. Of those, as many as 999 can be failures if I got the image I sought. Realistically, maybe 10-20 of my images in a day are one's that most of you would consider successes. But I also have days where none are. Yep, that's depressing, but it's sort of at the point of this article: what happened? Why did I fail so badly?

Broadly speaking, we have a few categories to consider:

  1. Wrong gear. I've written this before, but I had a sadistic boss when I started out covering sports; he sent me out with the wrong equipment for the job at hand. Always. He sent me to a track meet once with a TLR and asked for action photos of the running events. When you look down into the viewfinder of a TLR, everything that's moving left-to-right in front of you is moving right-to-left in the camera! This boss's thinking was "this will make him really think about what's important, and it isn't gear." He was right. Even 50+ years ago I was dealing with the "best camera is the one you have with you" thing. Sure, blame the gear, but don't think that absolves you. You were the one that failed. Maybe it was because you bought or brought the wrong gear. Fix that.
  2. Wrong technique. We've got a plethora of technique type things that can cause image failure: exposure, camera settings, aperture, shutter speed, handling discipline, and so on. These fall into two sub-categories: (a) you made the wrong choice; and (b) you haven't mastered something. Both things are solved by first understanding what caused the problem, then learning how to overcome it, and finally practicing until the right technique becomes second nature. Practice that.
  3. Unclear concept. A photograph is your statement about something. Do you know what that "something" is? If you know the something, do you know what you're trying to say about it (your "statement")? My mentor Galen Rowell used to spend weeks prior to big trips conceptionalizing. He knew well before hand not just what it was he was likely to encounter, but he knew its history and context. He'd think about the likely ways he could capture the "somethings" and make a "statement" about it. He did not wait until he was standing there having discovered "something" for the very first time and then spontaneously try to frame it before it went away. Moreover, as he was walking through an environment—Galen was mostly an outdoor adventure photographer—he also collected thoughts about how the place made him feel, and would contemplate how that might translate into a photo as he moved down the trial (or up the cliff). If you asked him, he always had a concept of what it was this next photo might be before he pressed the shutter release. Here's one way I deal with that with students: you can't press the shutter release until your photo has a name. You don't have a clear concept if you can't name it. Name photos.
  4. Poor choices. f/4 at 1/2000 and ISO 100 is the same exposure as f/22 at 1/500 and ISO 12800. One of those is probably not a good choice for a landscape photo where you want to resolve details. Sometimes gear choices intersect with this, as you can't do f/4 on some consumer zoom lenses at certain focal lengths, but I constantly find people getting all/most of the above right and still managing to do something clearly wrong with an in-the-moment choice. Note that it's always preferable to "press the shutter release" when a moment comes, but you need to realize that you are set wrong, make the setting change, and hope the moment is still there or comes again. Better still, you need to get good at anticipating the moment. Every photographic specialty has its moments, and you can learn which ones are likely so that you can be set correctly. Choose wisely.
  5. Bad processing. This one starts to happen in camera with wrong technique and bad choices, but much of the time it happens back at home when you're either trying to "fix" those things or enhance the image. Here's a little surprise for you: your camera has more dynamic range than you're likely going to be using. Your eye can only process a max of eight stops at a given time (pupil dilation increases that, but that's over time).  A print maxes out to about eight stops, but is probably less for many papers/inks. The least common denominator of displays (sRGB 8-bit JPEG) is going to restrict you to six stops. Holy bit depth, Batman, that's not much! If you're twiddling the Exposure, Highlights, Shadows, Whites, and Black sliders in Lightroom, you'd better know what you're actually doing and what you're trying to show. In essence, you move tonality, spread it (add contrast), or contract it (reduce contrast), and do that with different ranges of tonalities differently. Most people do this willy nilly until it "looks good" to them, and often without considering how it's going to be viewed. But there's also the issue of did they control what the camera captured correctly. The number one sin tends to be underexposing in the camera in a way that forces them to move the primary subject's tonality significantly upward, which exposes noise, which leads to noise reduction, which leads to edges not looking quite natural. You know who thought extensively and wrote about all those things in great detail? Ansel Adams (though it helped that most of the time he was not considering color). Go Ansel. 

I don't tend to fail at #1 or #2. I can sometimes make a #4 failure, too. #3 is something I used to have big problems with, but Galen set me on a path towards correcting that. I was also very lucky to work with and study a couple of the very best post processors in the business early on, so usually if I have a #5 failure, it's because I'm working too much in a hurry.

Oh dear, that just brought up another aspect to analyzing failure: speed. The only way you can work at speed and not keep failing is by practicing enough so that everything becomes second nature. Even then you'll make a mistake or two from time to time. 

One thing I've noticed in watching people photograph—and I do that any chance I can get, because it's so informative—is just how many people are (a) get to a place; (b) pick up the camera; (c) take a quick photo; and (d) move on. No time contemplating, no time checking or making settings, no questioning their choices, and often very bad handling because they're moving so quickly doing things. I expect those folk to fail. 

And again, failure is not a bad thing, as long as you take the time to learn from it. Be honest with yourself. Get others to help you evaluate what you're doing and what your results are. Seek advice. Be open and ready to change (and practice!). 

Still need motivation to tackle this? Here's the kicker: people who fail a lot and take the time to learn from that are the ones who progress the fastest and the furthest. Fail long and prosper.

Article also added to Learn > Improving the Photographer

The Fujifilm X half Arrives

Well, at least it's different.

bythom fujifilm xhalfangle

Fujifilm today introduced their odd new compact camera, the X half. It's half X100, half fad starting, half over-thought, half film nostalgia, and half half frame, all rolled into one. At first glance there's a lot to unpack. At second look, it's a pretty simple camera that is trying to win you over with its "differences." 

That starts with using an 18mp 1" image sensor vertically, and thus the Rear LCD is vertical, as well (and small at 2.4"). While it looks like it has a viewfinder, that's really a static optical framing tunnel with no information relayed. You get two dials, one switch, one button (besides the shutter release), one swipe area, and one film-like (advance) lever. You can only take JPEGs (or half FullHD videos). It even has a near-lens flash to produce red-eye.  

Much of what Fujifilm's trying to push here is style, not substance. The press release says "rediscovering and reinventing the charm of film photography in a digital format." To me that's a bit like doubling down on a cheaper and less sugary soft drink they already are vested in. It's "cool" to limit yourself to the number of exposures a roll of film can provide, for instance, though apparently Fujifilm thinks that 12, 24, or 36 isn't enough, so it's 36, 54, or 72 on the X half instead (ironically, the battery lasts 880 images CIPA ;~). 

The Sigma bf camera was a rethink at simplification of the photo capture process. The Fujifilm X half is a whimsical impression of what photo taking should be like. It's nice that we're getting camera companies thinking outside the box they're in, but there's a lot of style over substance going on in these new designs. And in adding style, your options get simplified and focused, not necessarily where you'd want them to be.

No doubt the creator/influencer market will rush to Fujifilm X half and it will sell well, at least as long as whatever fad this is lasts. dpreview described it as "profoundly silly." I wait for a proponent of "take only one image a day" quests to take up this camera. They won't have much to think about except what's in front of the camera every day, and if they use the film mode, they'll be waiting at least a month before they can see a full "contact sheet" of their images and change to a different film simulation. 

For about the same price (at least here in the US), Fujifilm also sells the X-M5 with a kit zoom. More and better pixels. More and better control. More and better speed. More and better focal length. More and better video. Same film simulations. That should tell you something about the X half. It's less than half the camera.

ANNOUNCING: Mastering Nikon JPEGs

Usually when I go quiet, it's because I've been hard at work on something. Sometimes it's client work, sometimes it's a workshop, sometimes it's a big review, sometimes it's redesigning Web sites, but more often than not it's because I'm deep into finishing a book.

Today I'm announcing an ebook that should appeal to anyone with a Nikon camera dating all the way back to 2007 (D3 and D300). That's right, my new book is not camera specific. Welcome to Mastering Nikon JPEGs.

When Nikon introduced EXPEED, they introduced their processing and color model for the next 20+ years. While they've added features, such as a handful of new Picture Controls and a couple of new Picture Control parameters, everything else has been remarkably consistent from the D3 all the way through the Z9 (and beyond...). Set a D3 and Z9 the same way and you get the same results. As it turns out, there have only been three major additions to Picture Controls in the 18 year history of EXPEED that impact what you can do with JPEGs. Aside from those additions, every Nikon camera from 2007 to the present, including Coolpix, can create a JPEG image that looks exactly the same as a D3 JPEG.

I waited for Nikon to document what they were up to, but it seems that information about dealing with Picture Controls has actually gone backwards and more difficult to find in recent years rather than becoming more broadly marketed and disseminated. Sure, Nikon keeps touting whatever the latest widget they added to how EXPEED creates out of camera images, but then they don't always explain why (and sometimes even how) you'd use it. I guess once Nikon figured that they were catering to "creators", the creators themselves would creatively figure everything out ;~). Rapio creationem.

Starting with the Z9, understanding JPEG creation became even more important given that Pre-release capture can't create raw files, only JPEGs. Sports and wildlife professionals now needed to figure out how to create better JPEGs. When Nikon marketing didn't step in and start telling everyone how to get the best possible JPEG images out of Pre-release capture, of course I started getting questions about that. 

When I start getting a large number of common questions I typically start writing an article. I realized pretty quickly, though, that Nikon JPEGs needed more than an article, they needed an entire book. So that's what I've created.

Mastering Nikon JPEGs is 344 jam-packed pages of information that will take you through everything you need to know to create images that look great (and the way you want them to) right out of the camera. The heart of the book is about Picture Controls, that EXPEED-powered engine that Nikon first created for the D3 and has used and extended ever since. However, we also have to take a couple of other stops—broadly "exposure" and "white balance"—to work through the entire process of creating great-looking JPEGs. And yes, not only do I fully describe what's happening with the Picture Controls, I'll take you all the way through the process of creating your own (or using some pre-made ones others have created). 

While there's a little bit of "geek" in Mastering Nikon JPEGs, I've tried to keep the book approachable and easily understood. If you read it from front to back, it builds the knowledge you need create great-looking JPEGs step by step. (Perhaps in future editions I will add some extra geek, as there's a lot happening under the covers that could use further explaining.) While my Complete Guides for the various cameras do cover some of the same topics, they don't do so in the structured way I do in this new book. Moreover, writing more broadly allows me to focus you not on the camera menus, but rather on the process you use to create great out of camera images. I talk about style—without forcing you to one particular one—and much more that really doesn't fit in a camera instruction book. This is photographic instruction that I'm dealing with in Mastering Nikon JPEGs, not camera instruction. That's an important distinction to understand. 

This new book is the first in a series of three I've been working on that deal with the kinds of topics that I mostly help workshop students with. While I do often deal with camera issues at workshops, the primary goal for my teaching is dealing with photography issues. If you're going to take great JPEG images, you need a structure to think about how you do that, and you need information about the key things that you should be controlling. That's exactly what you'll find in Mastering Nikon JPEGs. No fluff. No deep drills into esoteric features you might not actually use. Nope. My new book concentrates on one thing: you want great JPEGs right out of the camera, so how do you get them?

You'll find my new book on the zsystemuser.com site today (and on the dslrbodies site as soon as I get time). If you're willing to spend US$39.99 to find out what I've been (mostly) working on for the past six months, you can click here to get started.

Only use raw (NEF)? The tools you're using to evaluate exposure on your Nikon are all solely based on the JPEG output (e.g. histogram, highlights, and zebras). Get your JPEG settings wrong and those tools will lie to you about the exposure in your raw file. Check your camera. You raw users probably are set on the default Picture Control, which is Auto. As in automatic contrast, automatic sharpening, automatic saturation, and more. I've seen raw exposures as much as a stop-and-a-half off because someone trusted the in-camera exposure tools and they tripped over the JPEG settings. While I don't dwell on this in my book, it's a reason why Mastering Nikon JPEGs should be read by every Nikon user.

The book comes both as an ePub and PDF file. The PDF file is structured for printing (but can be read on your device, too). 

Site Warning

This is my year to redesign my Web sites. Because of that, I'm going to take two big chunks of time away from daily/weekly publishing this year:

  • June 20th to August 20th
  • November 15th to December 31st (okay, probably January 2nd, 2026). 

If Nikon announces something important, or there's another key event that happens during those time frames, I'll likely post briefly about it, but my goal is to use my time during those periods programming mostly bythom and zsystemuser from scratch (CSS, Tailwind, PHP, and JS/JSON mostly). The overall idea is to create something "more and better." 

So if you notice a long period of silence from me, trust that something interesting is brewing in the background. Meanwhile, all my sites are broad and deep with information already, so perhaps take the time to drill down into some of the sections you haven't looked at and see what you might find (for example, I recently published the pinouts for the MC-DC3 connector on the Z50II and Z5II; yeah, I do a lot of little additions like that without making an announcement.). 

What's So Important About JPEGs?

Since I just published a book centered around JPEG creation, this is a good time to remind people of just how important JPEGs and their settings are. I'll use Nikon cameras as an example here, but similar things apply to virtually all the cameras you might use.

  • JPEGs are the default. Let's say that you reset your camera somehow (via firmware update, via actually using Reset all settings, because of a bug that triggers a camera reset, or by accidentally hitting the two green buttons simultaneously, Nikon's default, as with all camera makers, is to create a JPEG file. If you take your camera out of the bag and don't remember or catch that it's been reset, you're going to create JPEG files. How many depends upon how much you're paying attention. But if you follow my advice, you're always paying attention, because:
  • Exposure tools are based upon JPEG settings. Even if your camera is set to take raw images, any exposure tool you bring up is getting its data from the JPEG flow. That includes the histograms, highlights displays, and even zebra stripes. Get white balance wrong or have automatic settings in Picture Controls (or the wrong Picture Control and/or parameters), and the exposure tools will lie to you. I've seen people saturate channels this way, and I've seen them severely underexpose, resulting in more image noise than they should have gotten.
  • JPEGs are what you see on the camera's displays. Nikon these days has multiple JPEGs embedded in your raw files. Some are used for thumbnails, some are for particular camera display functions, but there's also a full-sized JPEG basic one there, too. If you're looking at an image on your camera using one of the camera's displays (EVF, Rear LCD, even HDMI connection), you're not looking at raw data, you're looking at a JPEG created with whatever settings were in place when you took the image.
  • Pre-release capture can only create a JPEG. Actually, that's not the only function that does, Multiple exposure and HDR (overlay) do, too. When photographing sports and wildlife, I've watched photographers go from taking regular images to deciding to use Pre-release capture to capture a fast action sequence, but then never pay any attention to what their JPEG settings might be as they do. Nothing like throwing away 90% of the data and getting that wrong, it'll ruin your day sometimes.
  • JPEG settings can inform raw processing software. This is easiest to see with Nikon's NX Studio, where that raw processor picks up every camera setting and processes (initially) exactly the way the camera would. But it's also true that you can set Adobe software to "Camera Matching" and get reasonable facsimiles of what the camera would do in processing. If you've set the camera well, this can simplify your post processing of raw images, because you'd be concentrating solely on the things that you can't do in camera.
  • Pushing to SnapBridge or NX MobileAir is usually about JPEGs. At the default of 2mp images, those aren't raw files that SnapBridge is receiving on your mobile device. Generally the point of using the move-off-the-camera wireless functions is to get images for social media use quickly, and smaller JPEGs do that faster than anything else you can create. That's why Nikon put those defaults in place: they assumed that you wanted really fast transfers. Why would you want your social media post for an image look worse than your eventual wall-sized print?
  • JPEGs are understood by everything. Pretty much everything that can display an image understands JPEG files. JPEG is still around because it's become the lowest-common denominator for images. So much so that you don't even have to provide a Color Profile along with the image data; all those programs showing you a JPEG will just assume sRGB and a universal gamma, which is the way your camera created the JPEG in the first place.
  • JPEGs can be incredibly small, yet still present an eye-catching result. The 45mp cameras can produce files with all those pixels in as little as 3MB of file space. That means you could fit almost 11,000 of those images on a 32GB card. I could put my entire catalog of A images easily on such a card using JPEG. And if I got all the settings right, those images would still be impressive to those I share them with. 

Photographers wanted built-in automatic exposure meters in their camera because it avoided them having to go all Ansel on the problem of what aperture and shutter speed to use. Then they wanted autofocus because it avoided them having to figure out where the focus should actually be or rotating a dial to keep up with subjects. In digital everyone wanted automatic white balance because they had no idea what a Kelvin or MIRED was, let alone what to do about it. After Lightroom appeared everyone apparently decided that it was safer to take raw images, because they could "always fix it in post." If you get the impression from that we photographers have been getting lazier, you're correct. 

I understand why, too. I've cataloged easily well over 600 decisions that you make (or assume, or the camera makes) that are necessary to contemplate to create great images. Images that are yours, and stand out from those of others. You don't want to face all those decisions, sure, it's daunting to say the least. 

However, as I point out in my latest book, Mastering Nikon JPEGsit's really just three things you need to think about to get JPEGs right: tonality, color, and style. Two of those may not vary in any photographic situation you're in, and maybe even all three don't vary at times. Thus, I'd argue that it pays to put some attention on how your camera is dealing with JPEGs, no matter what the situation you're in, what you think the time constraints are, and even if you're taking raw photos. Mastering JPEGs with your camera is a big win towards becoming a better photographer, and it's not as big a problem to make those decisions as you might think. You do, however, need to know what the primary three things to control are, and what your options are for each. Heck, if you even master one of the three things, you're probably already creating better JPEG images.

Ignore and avoid JPEGs at your own peril. Take the time to embrace what they do and maximize that potential.

This article is also now archived in Learn > Taking Photos Techniques.

A Questionable Transition into Summer

Based upon future anticipated shipping patterns (cargo vessels and ports have to plan in advance, and much of that data is publicly available), the real crunch from the China tariffs probably begins some time in May. Even if the trade war were concluded today, there would likely be a period of a few weeks starting in May where Asian imports no longer meet US orders. Moreover, it would be expensive to try to get through such a cargo vessel lull by using air transport temporarily, should an importer decide they absolutely need product. 

So what's that mean for photographic gear? 

Probably more than most people think. That's because buying photographic gear is, for most people, a discretionary purchase. You're more likely to buy in times when disposable income is plentiful, less likely when you're penny pinching.

The problem starts with cargo ships. Because no one wants to pay 145% tariffs unless they absolutely have to, a lot of cargo originally destined for the US will never leave an Asian port. Three weeks later, the US West Coast ports suddenly are operating at much lower levels (current Long Beach estimates are for a 25% year-to-year decline in May). This leads to temporary employment cuts at the ports, but also leads to less need for further domestic shipping (i.e. trucking and rail). Which leads to more temporary employment cuts. Meanwhile, no new product shows up at retailers, leading to eventual product shortages and further temporary employment cuts. 

Employment cuts lead to less discretionary income and less spending in the overall economy, which starts a slow downward spiral where future orders are lowered, thus future cargo ships don't get loaded in SE Asia for the US, and on and on. 

When I made the statement about the difference between ignorance and stupidity when I first wrote about the tariffs, this is part of what I was referring to: we know the likely outcomes of engaging in an all-out tariff war. We've already seen Wall Street gyrating as it tries to figure out how this war will play out. Particularly given that the current administration keeps putting contradictory policies into and out of place. 

June is going to be the start of a very difficult time for camera gear here in the US if this trade war goes on much longer. Some products won't be available, others will have higher prices, dealers will be floundering trying to get their inventory and cash into alignment, and camera companies will be staring at an overall down year for unit volume and sales (the rest of the world can't make up for any substantial decline in the US market, particularly since any recession in the US would spread Internationally). I've already pointed out to Nikon Z System users that if they want certain lenses made in China that they're in stock now but might not be in the very near future. If one of those sixteen lenses was on your summer buying radar, you're about to see the radar go blank.

Thing is, June is historically a high volume month for camera gear, as people consider what they'll be taking on vacation travel with them for the summer. Moreover, Father's Day and graduation presents also tend to play a large part in late spring sales. I'm fearful that this year will be very different than previous years. Particularly for US camera dealers, who are the canary in the coal mine. 

Why do I say that? Well, you can simply continue using what you have if you don't buy anything new. It won't kill your photography. The camera makers, meanwhile, will micromanage where their production goes temporarily, which means they'll increase export to countries other the US. It's your brick and mortar camera dealer that's in the vulnerable position. If you rely on a local dealer, now is the time to make sure you're really supporting them, otherwise they might go away. 

There will be no winner in this war. Only a clear loser, and long term that would be you, the consumer (and that's regardless of where you live). 

_______________________

Currently anticipated impacts here in the US:

  • Canon — Increasing list prices soon, fewer Instant Rebates until then.
  • Fujifilm — No new imports of X-M5, X100VI, and GFX100RF into the US for the time being. 
  • Nikon — Cancelled most Instant Rebates (effectively a price increase) while pondering what to do next.
  • Sony — Notified dealers of multiple pricing changes, some of which were changes to changes, in the past week.
  • Overall — I'm aware of one camera that won't be initially introduced in the US, and two more that are currently going to get a delay.

The New Problem: Satiation

I've written before that things have (and will continue) to slow down in terms of new gear announcements. All of the camera companies are on a more modest release schedule than they were pre-pandemic, and continued supply chain issues coupled with the low overall volume of the camera market has caused most companies to slow their product proliferation. Canon might be an exception to this, primarily because they wouldn't survive without volume; their whole strategy is based upon selling 50% of the 8m or so camera units made each year. 

Coupled with the above are two other issues. First, as camera makers pushed their products higher up in the market, the consumer stopped being in the mood to buy a new one every couple of years. But now we also have the tariff problem, which is causing yet another intersecting problem. For instance, Fujifilm produces the X100VI, X-M5, and GFX100RF in China. It's impossible for them to import them into the US given the 145% tariff. If someone was still really in the market for a  those cameras and can't get those Fujifilm models, they'll buy something else. And then once they've paid top money for something else, it's doubtful that when Fujifilm can once again import those models into the US that the same customer would be interested in opening their pocket book again.

I identified sampling, leaking, and switching as market factors over a decade ago when we started the DSLR to mirrorless changeover. I'm now identifying another factor: satiation

We've already seen this a bit on the Nikon side, where D850 owners simply don't see the value in making the transition to mirrorless. They already have a great camera that they paid a lot of money for—arguably the best all-around DSLR ever made—and they don't see a clear benefit to spending a greater amount of money to get something mirrorless today, particularly if they need to change their lens set. D500 owners tend to think this way, too (another best-ever camera, this time APS-C). 

Despite my having documented over 120 feature requests that Z9 generation owners would like to see in their cameras, I'd be the first one to admit that I haven't been able to fully take advantage of all the things that are already built into my Z9, and I'm a high practitioner who makes use of advanced features and top-end performance. At 73 years of age, I can easily say that the Z9 Generation cameras I own, coupled with a solid Z-mount lens set, are enough satiation that I don't really need anything else before I eventually age to the point where I can no longer practice photography. 

That's true of quite a few of the interchangeable lens camera crowd that's been buying Canon R1/3/5/6/7, Nikon Z6/7/8/9, and the various Sony A's: they're (mostly) an older audience and enjoy extended features and performance, but they're not fully using what they already have. Moreover, exactly what feature or performance aspect are they really missing? (Since I asked the question, I'll answer it: they'd love to escape much in the way of post processing. So building AI noise reduction into the camera would intrigue me.)

The problem with the leaking and switching that started in the early teens was that individual companies saw declines in sales if they were the ones the users were moving away from. Both Canon and Nikon were impacted by this as people discovered first m4/3 but especially Sony Alpha mirrorless. Nikon lost market share, and Canon had to use sales, quick temporary responses, and marketing to try to keep their share from eroding as well. Fujifilm and Sony benefited.

The problem with satiation is that everyone will see begin to see declining sales. The best marketing move against that is probably the upsell upgrade. In other words, you own a R6 or Z6 model, but for your next upgrade buy an R5+ or Z8+. Of course, this really just postpones satiation, and pushes what the person paid to an even higher level, which increases the eventual satiation.

Nikon's last four new cameras all are basically attempts to move closet gear owners into the new era. In other words, the D70 to D750 crowd, who never moved into mirrorless, partly because they don't use their cameras all that much and their gear lives mostly in a closet. The Zf is trying to re-engage the Df users, the Z50II is trying to re-engage the D7xxx users, the Z5II/Z6III are trying to re-engage the D750 users (and a few Z5/Z6/Z6II owners, as well). If successful, I'd say that the likelihood is that those users will become satiated if they make that move. All four of those new Nikon mirrorless cameras are really complete, high executing products. 

The prospect of higher prices due to tariffs only adds to the problem. The high end products being pushed get even higher in price. If you're outside the US and think that the tariff war probably won't impact you, think again. Short term you might see better pricing because the camera companies are going to see sales in about a quarter of the camera-buying world dry up and they need to move volume, which means sales. Moreover, the likelihood of a large economic downturn is very high now, which will also put pricing pressure on companies. But this wasn't called a tariff war for nothing. The impacts on the supply chain are already being felt, and all that's happened so far is one person shot their wad and got a wad fired back in response. While I believe Trump is a poser—he makes huge claims and sets goals that he never really delivers on (how's that wall paid for by Mexico coming?)—he's triggered a massive disruption that's going to have businesses shaking in aftershocks as everything starts to get renegotiated, reconfigured, and reorganized. 

If you're satiated, as I sort of am, you're just going to go out and use the gear you've got. Double that if you're also being hit economically. I don't remember a time in the last thirty years—which includes terrorism, a great recession, a pandemic, and more—when the behind the scenes chatter as I talk with others in the industry (press, stores, pros, camera companies) has been so questioning about what will happen as a result. 

You might be surprised after all the above to hear this optimistic conclusion: some form of the camera industry will survive, and potentially thrive. It's really a Darwinian cycle we're facing. The healthy, strong, and inventive will carry on by evolving to the new and changing conditions. The unhealthy, weak, and those that don't act at all may die off. 

This Week's Update

I keep getting tariff related questions, and now we're starting to see the "price increase" articles, though without much specificity. A few are asking me whether the camera companies are going to change their product plans for the year. Still others speculate about trans shipment workarounds.

Let me explain what's going on, starting with trans shipments.

The basic idea that people are promoting is that by first shipping the product to another country—e.g. China to Japan—that the tariffs would change. That is not true. This was tried by some but both International and US laws adapted to essentially foreclose that. There have been some recent exceptions that got around a specific tariff. For instance, building something, disassembling it and importing it into the US as parts, then remanufacturing it here. Under the current tariffs, that wouldn't work, as the parts themselves would be tariffed the same as the manufactured item. 

Next up, I've seen a lot of headlines in the photography press about "price increases." Most of those are leaks out of the subsidiaries and dealers about a temporary response. Without knowing what the actual cost of importing an item into the US will be next week, next month, or later in the year, the subsidiaries all seem to be putting a temporary halt to some of their future sales and rebates. That doesn't address what's already on dealer shelves, though, so it is highly likely that you're going to get contradictory statements: new instant rebates coupled with cancelled instant rebates. 

You might have seen that "electronics" have been given a temporary tariff reprieve. I haven't actually seen anything from our government that specifically states which categories of goods are covered by that. The US complies with the "harmonized system structure" that was developed Internationally, which divides every possible product into logical sub-categories with specific attributes (which was why I was able to tell you that Camels aren't tariffed between the US and Japan). The current document of record published by the US is dated April 10, 2025 and basically only catches up with the 84% to 125% change in China tariffs. "Cameras" are not in the same category as "smartphones" and "computers," which apparently were what the administration referred to on Friday afternoon and which was talked about all weekend (the "Apple/Samsung exception"). 

So in terms of pricing, I don't think anyone actually knows what the price of any particular camera sold a month from now will be. There's inventory that needs to clear from dealer shelves, and there's new inventory coming in. Those two things may be priced differently.

My advice to all importers is to keep your prices intact, but add on a specific "Trump Import Duty Tax", much like automakers add "Transportation Cost", airlines add "Airport, Landing, and Security Fees", and communications carriers add "FCC and other Taxes." As a vendor, you don't want to be perceived as the one raising the cost of things. Point to the culprit, so that people know who to really complain to.

In my discussions, no one in the US seems to know exactly what they're going to do long-term yet. We've seen (or heard about) some short term changes, some of which were then changed again already. The latest is that the popular Fujifilm sellers (X-M5, X100VI, and the just announced GFS100RF) are apparently temporarily no longer being imported into the US, mostly because these products are not really in stock in the US and any new order FujifilmUSA might bring in would be subject to the China tariffs (which on any given day in the past ten days were 10%, 30%, 45%, 84%, 125%, or 20%, depending upon what kind of product and which day and hour you looked it up). 

Which leads me to the question about whether camera companies are going to change their future product plans. Short answer: yes. Unfortunately, we don't know how those plans will change yet, nor do I think the Japanese know, either.

A source in Tokyo actually pointed out an unintended consequence of what is going on right now in this trade war: supplies. The camera companies were just getting a handle on post-pandemic supply chain, though image sensors were still a bit of an issue. The panic point in Tokyo right now apparently centers around the supply chain again, particularly given China's response to limit export of rare metals and other key materials. Tokyo will figure out what to do about tariffs in their usual micromanagement of the bean counting, but right now they're apparently worried that they won't have some things to count. 

Ironically, here I am having to write about this topic (again) when the primary advice I've been giving people for two decades is that the camera gear we have is more than adequate, that we should all be concentrating upon improving our use of said gear. That's something I've been concentrating on myself the past few months, but if we're no longer buying new cameras and lenses in the future, it's what we'll all be doing. 

f/1.2 is the new f/1.4

Sometimes progress moves at such a slow rate that it's difficult to notice it truly being made. Sometimes we get clear signals. 

We're currently getting clear signals with prime lens designs.

Let me explain. Back in 1959, Nikon made their 35mm f/2.8 lens. We got four different versions of it over time, then three AI versions. In 1962, the 35mm f/2 appeared, and here we had eight different versions over time. So as I finished high school the state of primes (for Nikon, though this was mirrored by other brands) was a slightly compromised f/2 (when used wide open) versus a somewhat better f/2.8. Your choice. Faster or slower.

In 1971 when I first started photographing sporting events, Nikon introduced their first 35mm f/1.4 lens. In 1989 Nikon added autofocus and completely redesigned the f/2 lens, and from that point forward, we started having a slightly compromised f/1.4 versus somewhat better f/2. Again, your choice of faster or slower played a role in which you chose. 

Fast forwarding to the Z era, Nikon is now making a 35mm f/1.2 and a 35mm f/1.8, so that similar slow/fast bit is still present, with another choice (f/1.4) in the middle. 

This pattern is observable across brands, and across focal lengths, though sometimes it takes a while before what happens with a single optic becomes clearly what's happening across all. Given the press releases and the sneak peaks that have come across my desk recently, I believe that we've hit another of those inflection points: f/1.2 is the new fast lens in most mounts, replacing f/1.4. 

Before I get to some supporting evidence for that statement, let's recap what apertures really do:

  • f/1.2 — let's call this our new "baseline"
  • f/1.4 — half stop slower (-0.5EV)
  • f/1.8 — one and a third stops slower (-1.3EV)
  • f/2 — one and a half stops slower (-1.5EV)
  • f/2.8 — two and a half stops slower (-2.5EV)

The point where I call "a change has occurred" is when multiple vendors start doing the same thing across multiple focal lengths. Canon now has multiple f/1.2 primes, Nikon now has multiple f/1.2 primes, while Fujifilm and Sony both have one. Plus we have third party vendors such as Surui and Viltrox with multiple f/1.2 APS-C primes and Viltrox now tackling full frame. Cosina (Voigtlander) has one f/1.2 full frame lens and appears to be about to launch additional ones. I'd say we're now clearly in the f/1.2 era, leaving the f/1.4 decades behind.

The interesting thing this time is many of these new fast lenses, if not most, are attempting to remove the old "fast but low contrast" reputation that the fastest prime in a lineup previously had. Nikon's three f/1.2 primes are extraordinarily good wide open. Stop them down a half to a full stop and they go from being really good optics to being best in class. The penalty for that is size, weight, and price. 

I actually that's a pretty good compromise. If you're really in need of that extra half stop, you're already in the category of "wanting the best." So getting best aperture, best optical performance, but paying a price for that seems about right. The f/1.4 (and f/1.8) optics are becoming more mainstream, but with some compromise. Again, using the current 35mm Nikon choices, it seems to go about like this:

  • 35mm f/1.2 S (US$2799) — best light gathering, best optical performance (at equivalent apertures, and fine optical performance wide open), but size and weight are significantly higher, and these lenses are at premium prices.
  • 35mm f/1.4 (US$529) — note the lack of an "S", meaning this isn't one of Nikon's higher end optics. For some reason they've chosen to make the f/1.4 lens their price leader at this focal length. Here we're at "good" light gathering, decent optical performance (need to stop down to pull in corners), and lowest price. 
  • 35mm f/1.8 S (US$849) — less light gathering, near best optical performance, moderate in size, weight, in price (compared to the others). 

Note: I picked the 35mm focal length because of its really long history (I could have picked 50mm, as well). 

This new f/1.2 era is partly the result of Canon and Nikon fully committing to a mirrorless future in 2018. Specifically in Nikon's case, they went from the most constrictive mount to design for to being the least restrictive, which was one of the things that gave them the ability to consider f/1.2 high performance primes. 

We're seeing a similar thing starting to happen with zooms, where f/2.8 was once considered the baseline "fast." We now have just enough f/2 zooms poking their heads out of the design rooms to guess that f/2 will soon become the new zoom baseline, but I'm not ready to call that yet, as we're also been seeing focal range compromises on these new lenses, which means the lens makers haven't fully bought into replacing the f/2.8 trios with f/2 ones.

One Last Take (for now) on Tariffs

I really didn't want to prolong this discussion, but unfortunately a lot of misinformation is now spreading and we need to deal with it in order to have a reasonable discussion about how the photography business is going to be impacted by recent Trump actions.

One thing I'm noting is that everyone is getting one thing wrong about the tariffs; they all assume that a tariff is on the list price of the product. That's not true unless the customer bought the product directly from outside the country. The 36% tariff that NikonUSA would have to pay would come on the "price" that the subsidiary is "paying" for the unit—technically, a term called declared value—not the list price. So, if NikonUSA was getting a 50% discount from corporate on the import, and if NikonUSA chose to pass what they paid as tariff on to the eventual retail customer, then the additional price burden would really be more like 18%, not 36%. 

Because camera dealers get such a small discount from the camera or lens maker—typically 15 to 20%—it's unlikely that dealers can absorb this new tariff burden. It's either going to be the camera maker or the eventual customer whose finances are directly impacted, perhaps both.

This unfortunately brings up another problem that we've had in the past but is likely to return: the parent company could "game" the declared value through the distribution path to help reduce the tariff impact. For instance, a product could be imported to NikonUSA for less than it is to Nikon China. That's technically illegal as it triggers "dumping" laws, though catching such actions becomes an enforcement problem. Moreover, whether or not the US would actively police such activity is unknown. 

I believe there's a bit of a panic about how much prices will go up if Trump's tariffs stay in force. Prices will probably go up less than you think. But any increase that ends up in the 10-20% range is still going to be seriously felt by the photographic community. Note that B&H's Payboo "we'll pay the sales tax" change made for a significant shift in buying away from local dealers, and there we're talking about only a 5-10% cost-to-customer differential.  

Ironically, the auto industry, which invested in North American production via a previous trade agreement with Mexico and Canada negotiated by Trump, might be harder hit than the all-imported camera industry. That's because the car makers counted on that agreement to target their investments, and ended up scattering plants across all three North American countries in ways where parts ship back and forth across the border two, three, four, and sometimes more times. Each time a part re-enters the US it would be tariffed under the new plan. So what happens is that the parts inside a car could go up in price significantly, which, in turn, can make the price of the car go up more than expected, even for autos assembled in the US.

In case you didn't get the irony, let me explain it more simply: an industry that does manufacture in the US (autos) may be hit harder by the Trump tariffs than an industry that has no plans to ever build in America. As with many things Trump, what he says ("bring manufacturing back to the US") is in direct contradiction to his actions.

So let's deal with that (manufacture in the US). As someone who's managed both over his long career—I've manufactured overseas and manufactured in the US—I have a pretty good sense of why you do one versus the other. When labor becomes the biggest element in your product cost, the tendency has been to shift production overseas, where labor is much less expensive. When parts are your biggest cost and labor is minimal, it often pays to manufacture in the US (as long as tariffs don't increase your parts cost ;~). But note that "labor is minimal" bit. If manufacturing is brought back to the US in any meaningful volume, it's likely to be robotic manufacturing. This does two things: (1) requires fewer workers; and (2) requires workers with different skill sets and knowledge. 

Trust me, I get it. I understand what many of the Trump supporters have been saying and why the "Make America Great Again" slogan resonates with them. These folk desire for things to go back to some unspecified way they were at some "magical" point in time. Unfortunately, that's not the way life works. You don't get to "perfection" and then just rest on your laurels forever. You have to evolve based upon whatever forces are arrayed against you at any given time. 

Wage increases measured in constant dollars have not really budged this century for those in the lower quartile (25%) of the population. If you're in the top 10%, then yes, you've seen clear wage increases. However, if you add in benefits (overtime, insurance, paid leave, retirement contributions, etc.), the story is one of real increase pretty much across the board, but still probably not at the level you'd desire if you're in the bottom quartile (and who wants to work overtime to get ahead?). [source: Pew Research]  

The thing that the few that are writing me with complaints, and which they're not understanding about Trump's tariffs is this: they do nothing to increase wages, but they will do quite a bit to erode purchasing power. Moreover, these folk didn't seem to notice what happened coming out of the pandemic: "Between 2019 and 2024...low-wage workers experienced historically fast real wage growth (adjusted for inflation)." [source Economic Policy Institute]

What we're all fighting right now is perception. One side perceives a problem that doesn't really exist. The other side sees the response as a new problem that is being created. What next happens is that misinformation spreads virally through our now compromised media and social networks, and the differences in perception compound and escalate. 

This month I finished endowing a new permanent scholarship at the Indiana University Media School: the Herbert A. Terry Ethics and Integrity in Media scholarship. I put my money where my mouth pen is: we're not being well served by media at the moment, partly because its ethics and integrity have been compromised. Hopefully, my small contribution will do some modest part in fixing that in the future. 

In the mean time, this past week I've spent time away from discussing photography, writing articles or books, and reviewing new gear in my own attempt to make it clear that we have policies now in place that will potentially erode the photographic community in ways that are destructive, and for no clear reason. If you don't think that the photographic community is important to me, then you haven't been reading my posts for the past 30 (!) years.

I really don't want to prolong this discussion. However, if left in place Trump's tariffs will likely have more impact on the companies we photographers rely upon and how much we pay for our gear than any possible new product that might suddenly appear could have. Mine was one of the first Web sites (back in 2003) that expanded to cover what's happening economically in the photography market, and the tariffs are potentially the biggest such story so far, and we've already had some large ones (quakes, floods, pandemic, etc.). To ignore the tariffs would be saying I abdicate writing about economics at all. (Disclosure: my PhD work was in New Technology Economics and Management.)

I have a prediction about the tariffs. Trump's tactics have consistently been performative theater, not action. By that I mean he announces that he's going to do something and that a problem will go away, but rarely does it. In his first administration he dismissed NAFTA, the trade agreement that binds the US, Mexico, and Canada. His renegotiation resulted in some rewording, alterations in phrasing, and punctuation getting changed, but nothing actually substantive.

The high likelihood is that the tariffs as they've been announced cannot stick. Even if there are negotiations that happen, it seems unlikely that his key reason for applying them—reduce the trade deficit—will actually occur. Again, a lot of loud rhetoric, bullying, and challenging, but it's unlikely to create real action on the Presidentially-perceived problem (not that any action is needed to reduce the trade deficit itself, but that's a story for another Web site).

_____________________

Bonus: I keep seeing others similarly say that Trump's tariffs are just part of a negotiating tactic, basically bullying other countries into things we want from them. Perhaps. But one thing I've long written about is the unintended consequences of any statement or act. I once saw a well-known professional photographer pull up a blooming plant and put it where he wanted it in a scene. Well, that worked great for him, but long term that had plenty of other consequences, none positive. 

One unintended consequence of the Trump tariffs is simple, and what I've been trying to point out: the photographic community now is stressing. It might get smaller. Companies we rely upon for gear are also now stressed. Dealers we count on are highly stressed and worried that this might be the end for them. An industry that doesn't really have—nor will it likely have in any foreseeable future—an onshore manufacturing presence will be hurt, and with it, those of us who use their products.

Some countries have already put up a surrender flag. Vietnam is offering to remove all tariffs on US products (though Trump's stated tariffs currently also require a 10% tariff no matter what, unless you're Russia or Belarus). What will come of that response is unclear. Mostly because Vietnamese tariffs aren't what were targeted and penalized by Trump: the trade deficit with Vietnam was. 

Japan has some soul-searching to do, I think: they have a long list of food and animal related tariffs in place against the US, though neither side apparently cares if you import a camel (true: zero tariff on camels, both directions). The US has some reciprocal food and animal tariffs on Japan, but mostly chose to put reciprocal tariffs on other goods in response, such as pickup trucks. There's absolutely a negotiation that could take place between the two countries because of that. Whether it will or not is another story. Again, Trump is hiding his knee-jerk reaction to physical good trade deficits behind what he calls, but aren't, reciprocal tariffs.

But it is other unintended consequences that are the story for the moment: the stock market has cratered; inflation might not be controllable by the FED; the dollar is down in value; the economy is likely to slow; distrust in the US has risen around the world. There may be even more unintended consequences we haven't yet learned about. It took the US four years to essentially reverse course after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs went into effect in 1930. It took many years and a war before all the unintended consequences played out. 


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