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This page of the site contains the latest 10 articles to appear on bythom, followed by links to the archives.
What Will Cameras Look Like in Ten Years?
If you just want the answer to the question, scroll down to the second bold-faced line later in the article. However, you really need to get there via some set up, so I hope you read my whole treatise.
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"It seems that we are in a period of time we reached the end of miniaturization! We can't go to smaller microchips, the strength of the currents inside the chips will cause the electricity to skip around circuits and cause problems." — Internet forum post
When you read something like the above quote on the Internet, you're seeing an uninformed opinion that's wrong. I can't state that more bluntly. Unfortunately, the Internet has this amplification effect, so once someone posts their paranoia online, that can quickly swell into first legitimate concern and eventually full acceptance.
In my talks with semiconductor experts, they all seem to believe that we've got at least a decade's worth of a reasonable (slower) form of Moore's Law (miniaturization) ahead of us (and I don't believe cameras are near current state-of-the-art, so they already have quite a bit of catching up to do). Moreover, we've been through these "Moore's Law is ending" suggestions before. The first time I heard that expressed is now almost twenty years ago.
As most of you know, I'm a technophile, and I'm optimistic that science continues to take us on a journey of discovery that generates new and better technologies in the future. Assuming, of course, that we continue to pursue and pay attention to science, which unfortunately isn't a given. I fear we're currently headed into the modern equivalent of the Middle Ages.
At the heart of statements like the above are people pondering what happens next with "cameras." I put that word in quotes because I think what we call a camera is likely to change in the coming decades. You can already see that in some forms. For instance, "cameras" in Tesla vehicles have been used in everything from court cases to art. One could claim that instead of a device that you hold in your hands and look through, Tesla "photographers" just drive their cameras to where they want to take a photo.
I get the "what's next for photography" question near constantly. Partly because I was right about predicting the transition from film to digital, as well as the transition from DSLR to mirrorless. Most of those questions are not actually about photography, though. They're gear questions, as in "I'm using a Nikon ZX; what am I going to be using in ten years, and will Nikon still be making cameras?" I don't know the answer to the first part of the question at the level of detail the person probably wants, but the answer to the second half is "yes, but maybe not in the form you're thinking of."
The interesting thing about being at the front edge of the tech business for so long is that you see in the failures the future. I'll give you a very simple personal example: back when we first imagined Go and the PenPoint operating system, we quickly stumbled on the use of tabs in the UI. Indeed, the whole PenPoint user experience revolved around moving between tabs to get access to different data. Recognize something about that statement? Does the Web browser you're currently using have tabs to move between data? Go failed, but quite a few of our ideas have had full and productive lives ;~)
Ideas that are basically correct in tech do live on. Here's another one that people have now dismissed but shouldn't: Lytro's light field capture. Like Go, Lytro burned though nine figures of capital, only to disappear. Yet I still remember quite well the excitement among the Hollywood crowd when Lytro demonstrated their Immerge system at NAB in 2016. I had originally thought that it was the three-dimensional virtual reality that was the selling point—witness today's Apple Vision Pro attempting the same thing—but it wasn't. In a cab with a Disney executive I found out the real reason they were interested, and that was the volumetric video aspect of the system: because the entire space in front of the "camera" was fully mapped in 3D, doing special effects—"replace that cardboard box with a robot"—could be easily done. Actually "easily imagined to be done."
Volumetric video is still coming. The ideas, the scholarly work, the physics, the geometry, everything about the idea still percolates, it's just not fully brewed into useful consumer products yet.
Which brings me to my answer to the question "what will cameras be like in ten years?" First, they will have multiple inputs (sensors). Second, they will integrate what we know about the world with what the sensors measure (AI). Third, user control interaction will (mostly) disappear and be replaced by user processing interaction. My marketing slogan? "The world is your camera."
This is a tricky bit for the Japanese camera companies. I'd say that virtually all of the "innovation" in cameras we've seen out of Tokyo has played off of things others discovered and proved before them. Digital image sensors didn't get invented in Japan. More like Bell Labs. But once out of the labs, the notion of converting photons to electrons and recording that became a pretty clear goal, particularly since the way we had been doing that revolved mostly around chemicals emanating from Rochester, New York. That allowed the Japanese to disrupt an entire industry.
Disruption has always been part of business cycles. The trick is to find the next technology that allows you to create that disruption.
You might think that the AI built into your camera today—virtually all focus systems use one now—means that the Japanese are on top of things. They aren't. The type of AI you see in your camera today is mostly the machine learning derived AI we were talking about in Silicon Valley ten to twenty years ago. The current focus system AI is just past the problem that Netflix encountered back in 2006 when they were trying to figure out "movie recommendations." Personally, I can actually see what the focus systems were trained on, and what they weren't. They're just babies with limited abilities at the moment.
My sense is that the Japanese are trailing the US and China in what we think about in current AI engines and uses. That doesn't mean they always will, however. It's a potential point of disruption to the Japanese camera industry, and I'd be looking closely at DJI and what they're doing in that aspect, because that's where the next generation of "cameras" may really come from.
Of course, smartphones are also in the mix, as well. Too many people get caught up in the limitations of small image sensors when they discuss smartphone "cameras." Smartphones are actually towards the forefront of the #2 and #3 of what I said a camera would be like in ten years (five paragraphs above).
Thus, my final thought is this: the camera industry is going to be disrupted again. Perhaps in five years, maybe in ten years, but absolutely within twenty years. That disruption will come from China or the US (as long as things continue to progress the way they are currently). Japan is on a clock.
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Bonus: Oh, I just have to write it. My fingers are way ahead of me here. 21st century cameras will be communicative. There, I said it (again; I first wrote that in 2007). That means that they don't exist in a vacuum by themselves. They integrate into all your other technology. Naturally. Conveniently. In real time. The Japanese like to think that they're making systems. Nope. Their product is (or should be) part of a bigger system they don't control.
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Some of you want a higher level of detail than the three points I made. I can actually do that. However, I still consult with tech companies and startups from time to time, so I'll reserve my detailed thoughts for those discussions.
The Continuing Problem of APS-C
If there's ever been a position in the camera world where the majority of the Japanese companies keep their butts clenched, it's APS-C. That really boils down to a simple thought: in order to provide lower priced entry products they need the cost savings implicit in APS-C, but they really don't want those lower priced products to compete with the higher end and higher margin products they make.
Almost by definition, even a top APS-C camera, such as the Canon R7, needs to not be good enough that almost everyone would forgo the full frame models, such as the Canon R6 Mark II. One way Canon and Nikon have kept their APS-C and full frame offerings apart is via lenses. I started commenting about that over fifteen years ago, and even created a shorthand for my criticism ("buzz, buzz", which was me acting like an annoying fly in the face of the Japanese executives making said decisions).
Even Sony is now part of that APS-C versus full frame separation action. Back when Sony was throwing things at walls and buying trinkets trying to figure out how to break the Canikon duopoly, Sony concentrated much of that effort on what originally was NEX, and now is the A6### lineup, both APS-C. Early on, Sony was making new lenses for these APS-C cameras. Today, not so much. About the time the second generation full frame Alphas got traction, Sony shifted to basically the same formula Canikon had established: restrict APS-C lens develop.
One thing that's a little different now is the entrance of the Chinese. Nikon, for example, makes five DX (APS-C) lenses for their crop sensor Z System cameras. China already makes 33 autofocus lenses for DX in the Z-mount. While those are currently all primes, many of them are better than Nikon's one lone prime for DX.
Which brings me to a slight sidebar: what's really not supported by the now Canikony triopoly are fast APS-C zooms. In particular an f/2.8 mid-range zoom (16-50mm) or telephoto zoom (50-150mm). Sigma and Tamron have been left this opportunity, but neither of them fill it quite correctly. Moreover, what does exist doesn't make it to the Z-mount, and it took awhile for Canon to acquiesce to anything third-party appearing in the RF-S mount.
If I'm a Chinese optics company and looking to really spread my wings, I'd be targeting:
- 12-24mm f/2.8 IS (18-36mm equivalent)
- 16-50mm f/2.8 IS (24-75mm equivalent)
- 50-140mm f/2.8 IS (75-210mm equivalent)
And I'd be doing that for Canon RF-S, Fujifilm XF, Nikon Z, Sony E, and even the L mount. For bonus points, I'd also consider f/4 versions as well as trying to come up with compact, light f/2 zoom of some sort.
Why include the L mount? Because it would be the easiest way for the Chinese companies to sneak into selling cameras, as well as lenses. Keep all those APS-C lenses on the compact, light, and less expensive side, and the Japanese camera companies would suddenly have an issue.
For example, the Nikon Z50II is a remarkably good camera at a remarkably good price, but hampered in its full usability by lens choice. I've watched a number of people in the past month decide to not get a Z50II and opt for a Zf or Z6III instead simply because of lens choices. That, of course, is exactly what Nikon wants to happen with informed and experienced buyers: pay more for the perceived pixel count, dynamic range, and lens benefits of full frame. That's a "safer" choice for serious users in Nikon-speak.
There's a tenet I used to use in Silicon Valley when I was in charge of products: don't be afraid to compete with yourself. In fact, I'd go further: if you're not competing with yourself from time to time, you're probably getting lazy and vulnerable to being disrupted by someone else. That, by the way, is exactly what took Nikon down from being a strong #2 in the camera market to being a weak #3.
When the Chinese come for cameras, Japan is going to find out that they didn't build enough customer loyalty at all levels to protect themselves. It will likely start with APS-C, but don't be surprised if that then quickly expands to full frame. (Technically, since DJI owns Hasselblad, the Chinese already have a foot in the Medium Format door.)
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Bonus: I actually started forming this article based upon the question of why there is no 50-150mm f/2.8 lens formulated for APS-C (outside of Fujifilm's 50-140mm f/2.8). But the answer to that was relatively simple: once you're out past portrait focal lengths, classic lens design doesn't offer much size/weight advantage for restricting to the APS-C image circle. The length of a telephoto lens is going to be something at or above the maximum focal length. For instance, the Fujifilm 50-140mm is 176mm in length. Canon's full frame 70-200mm f/2.8L IS actually collapses for travel to 146mm, and isn't much heavier. Moreover, the difference between 50mm and 70mm typically isn't seen as significant as the difference between 140mm and 200mm to someone buying such a lens, so the full frame 70-200mm starts to look like a viable lens for an APS-C camera. Thus, Canikony already had something they could point to for an APS-C user and didn't see it necessary to build a similar telephoto zoom lens for just APS-C (though the full frame version was higher priced than it could have been for APS-C).
Interesting Things Written on the Internet (Volume 25)
"We're often asked: 'Will AI-generated images replace photographers?' The answer is yes... for certain kinds of photography. For example, stock photography might be replaced by AI-generated images in the next 3-5 years." email from Eric Yang, CEO of Topaz Labs.
Good lord let's hope not. The implication of these kinds of statements about AI is that everything that could be done has been done. That's because the current AI implementations all work from knowledge of things that they've scanned. AI is not really a creative thinker. Even those so-called "hallucinations" you might hear about are based upon what was scanned, not completely made up from scratch.
One reason why stock photography exists is because if everyone uses the same images for their landing pages (or whatever) on the Web, then all marketing starts to look alike. Thus, if you subscribe to any stock photography market (disclosure: I do, though I rarely use such images, and then mostly only as ornament) you discover that the stock goes through trends, almost like fashion. I don't think AI is going to be dictating fashion. Indeed, to a large degree, one reason why fashion changes is that people want to avoid what everyone else is doing.
But this does suggest that if you want to stand out as a photographer you need to approach photography from your viewpoint and create new and compelling works, not simply copy others. Funny thing, that. I've been preaching that for decades now.
"I think that many in the smartphone generation are happy with one or two lenses...we don’t see the same numbers of people shelling out for four lenses as we used to..." interview with Fujifilm UK manager Theo Georgiades in Amateur Photographer
I'd describe this differently. We go through cycles in terms of camera buying, even as we go through technology cycles with cameras (e.g. film SLR, DSLR, mirrorless). Early in the new technology cycles, many of the first to move are those who are already using cameras but see an advantage to the new platform. That certainly happened with DSLR, and I believe it happened with mirrorless, as well. Current camera users saw something in the new technology that made their photography life better and jumped to the new form. It isn't that consumers discover the new form and then the established customers slap their wrist to their forehead and go "doh!"
After awhile, the excitement from the prosumer/pro users already having made a shift tends to get the attention of consumers, and you eventually get a new crowd buying, and buying mostly in the lower half of the lineup. That happened in the 70's with film SLRs, the 00's with DSLRs, and is now happening in the 20's with mirrorless. These folk don't have lenses, and don't yet know how lenses can be used to distinguish their work. So obviously they just buy the kit and use one lens for awhile.
It's actually up to the marketing departments of the camera companies to somehow convince those new users that they should be considering getting other lenses. Hmm. Who's doing that level of marketing at the moment? Bueller? Bueller? (Bonus aside: the lecture that Ben Stein, the economics teacher who say those famous words, was about tariffs and what happens when you apply them broadly, as with Smoot-Howley or...)
If we talk specifically about the smartphone generation moving to dedicated cameras—and indeed that's happening, just not in the huge volumes Tokyo would like—they're actually used to one "lens" being built into their device. Even the three-lens setup on the current iPhone Max Pro is essentially operated most of the time much like a mid-range zoom by the people I've watched.
That actually explains why cameras like the Fujifilm X100VI are so popular: it's just a "better" all-in-one solution than a smartphone (you "zoom" with its 40mp sensor by invoking real-time crops). Ironically, most of the X100VI users I've watched don't use that really sophisticated viewfinder. We'll see plenty more camera companies targeting this kind of device without really understanding why it's popular and then missing a key point or two in their design. I'd rather see someone such as Nikon make a Z9-generation Z30II but also figure out how the lens angle should be played with it other than "buy the kit." (One hint: you can get more telephoto from pinch to crop (or button to crop), as 8mp is more than enough for the uses these cameras are put to; but there's much more you need to do than just that.)
So as to that second part of the quote, the reason you don't see new-to-dedicated-camera users buy more lenses is because you, the camera company, have failed to show them how that becomes a useful extension to what they're already doing. Marketing is failing the camera companies big time these days. This is a marketing fail, not a completely new type of user that doesn't want lenses.
Finally, there's this: the overall market is smaller than it was. If there were one million users buying four or more lenses 15 years ago, there are only 300,000 or so doing so today.
"The problem with such reviews by individuals is that they are far too subjective. They only tell you about that one person's experience.” —dpreview forum
The implication of the first sentence is that reviews should only be done by organizations, and that organizations aren’t subjective. My experience, however, is that the larger the organization doing reviews, the more likely that their judgment is contaminated by other factors, including but not limited to how the group is funded. In the camera industry, we have a long history of magazines and others pulling punches on reviews so as not to offend advertisers.
Reviews contain basically two components: facts, and interpretation of said facts. For instance, someone could write “the camera produces 24mp images” or they could write “the camera produces 24mp images, which is (far) below today’s standard.” The first clause is a fact, the second is an opinion and based upon a second opinion (what today’s “standard” is).
You’ll note that I split my reviews into a few parts. The “What is it?” portion tends to stick to factual information about the product. A knowledgeable reader can form their own conclusions from that information (e.g. maybe they think f/6.3 is too slow an aperture for their work). The “How’s it Handle?” Is 100% my own subjective experience, based upon now 50+ years of using cameras from all makers, and a great deal of experience working as a professional. The “How’s it Perform?” section is a combination of facts and opinions. A buffer size can be reported in factual numbers, for instance, but subjectively that number works differently for different cameras. I’ll give an example: if a Zf-type camera had a 20-image buffer that might be fine for it while if a Z9-type camera had that same 20-image buffer it would be highly limiting. In order to understand that difference, you need a competent, reliable, and consistent reviewer who writes clearly.
Which brings us to the real thing about whether to trust a review or not: is the reviewer competent, reliable, and consistent? If you’re just browsing around the Internet and hit a review from someone you don't know you can’t make that assessment; I’d say that you have to take what they write with a grain of salt until such time as you can determine that they are competent, reliable, and consistent.
Now let’s deal with the second sentence of the quote, in particular the “one person’s experience.” The implication here is that someone else would have a different experience with the thing being reviewed. That’s possible, for sure, but the way that happens most often is that the other person’s experience biases their experience. Let me explain: if you hand a Canon camera to someone who only uses Sony cameras, their “experience” with the Canon is likely to be poor from the start. Controls are in different places, names are different, menus and customizations are different, and there’s a lot to learn about the Canon technology before you can master it (the implication is that they already learned the Sony technology and mastered it). Meanwhile, a reviewer who’s had broad use of Canon, Nikon, and Sony products actually has a better ability to describe where the product in question succeeds and fails. Yes, it’s an opinion based upon experience, but it’s an informed opinion.
More often than not, what I’ve found is that when people are objecting to reviews, they’re objecting more on the personality of the reviewer (including me) than the review itself. You see this all the time on the Internet fora. Indeed, it appears that the thread that generated this quote was removed by a moderator, likely because the discussion got into making strong negative comments about the reviewer, not the review.
“Company X should release a Y variant and let the market decide.” —common post, most recent of which was on dpreview
That’s not typically how successful businesses work. Throw spaghetti on the wall and see what sticks is a tactic that has been used by some, but it’s also an indication that they don’t know what business they’re in or who their customers are. With cameras and lenses there’s usually a two or three year creation process from idea to entering manufacturing, and R&D is one of the Japanese companies’ biggest expenses, particularly with lenses.
Nikon Imaging, for instance, is projecting a 24.5b Yen R&D cost this year against a likely 47b yen gross profit. Put another way, their profit is about twice what they put into development. They can’t afford to throw spaghetti at a wall; that increases R&D costs without necessarily generating profit.
This gets back to a common theme I’ve been writing about for three decades now: do the Japanese companies properly understand their current customers as well as their potential new ones? I’d argue that they are far less efficient at that than they should be. They miss clear easy pickings that I can see through my own user surveys, and they do silly things like leave out one or two features from cameras that should be configured identically (there’s no financial benefit to leaving HEIF out of the Z9, for example, or Cycle AF-area out of the Zf).
The most recent occurrence of the above quote had to do with wanting Nikon to put out a 400mm f/4.5 or 500mm f/5.6 with a built-in TC. The interesting thing here is that I tend to agree. If Nikon were to bring the 500mm f/5.6E PF VR over to the Z-mount, they certainly have the “air space” to stick in a TC and make it different. Moreover, it’s really clear to me that there’s a huge advantage to providing built-in teleconverters on the more expensive, exotic lenses, particularly for the 45mp users, as that gives you prime, prime+1.4x via teleconverter, prime+1.4x+1.5x via DX crop, which is effectively as good as a zoom much of the time. Even better, putting out a 500mm f/5.6 TC PF VR S might be enough to get people already using the F-mount version on the FTZ adapter to bite on the new version, too, as it gets rid of two extra mounts (you have to use an F-mount external TC and an FTZ adapter to get the extra reach now) and simplifies the switchover from one focal length to another.
But this isn’t “let the market decide.” It’s “the market would embrace this.” While that seems a subtle difference in wording, it’s the difference between doing something without knowing what your user might want versus doing it because you know what your user might want. Successful businesses always opt for the latter.
Finally, there’s this: some keep claiming that there’s no benefit of an internal teleconverter to an external one. Most of the time that argument centers on optical difference, not practical difference. Having now used the 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S for several years, I can tell you that being able to photograph at 400mm, 540mm, or 810mm with just a flip of a switch (TC) or a press of a button (DX crop) is vastly different than unmounting the lens, digging the teleconverter out of the bag, mounting the teleconverter, and then remounting the lens. It also doesn’t introduce a weak link in the lens/camera connection and another thing I have to carry, track, and clean. Personally, I’d pay for an internal teleconverter option on any long telephoto Nikon made.
This is another of those “learned things” that turn out to be wrong (“external teleconverter is more flexible”). Just because something has been done one way in the past doesn’t mean there isn’t a better way of doing it in the future. And that gets me back to my point: the camera company has to understand its customers well enough to know that something like a built-in teleconverter is highly welcome, not just throw the option out there and see if they like it. Look carefully at the most popular long telephoto lenses of recent times and you’ll find all of the internal teleconverter lenses in that list. The customers have already spoken.
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Bonus: Let's go back to that review quote. So why wouldn’t we trust an AI response to the question of “which camera is best?” Simple: AI is not overly competent at the moment (depends upon how well it was trained), not reliable (sometimes makes up answers, called hallucinations), and is not consistent (same question asked by different people at the same time get different answers).
Search isn’t any better, mostly because it’s no longer reliable (the search prioritizes how the search engine will make money, not your answer).
None of this is new. Throughout the history of media you find the same thing: the outlets that spend the time, money, and effort to be competent, reliable, and consistent are the ones that people eventually find and stick with. Indeed, the long-term viability of media tends to center around this notion.
The Wild Time of Year
If no one releases new products for a month, the photography Web sites all start hallucinating.
Some rumor sites are posting “coming in 2025” camera models that, well, aren’t coming. I asked ChatGPT just to see what it might hallucinate, and for Nikon it came up with Z9II, Z7III, Z5II, Nikon Cinema camera, Coolpix P1000, and screw-drive lens adapter. Well, one of those is true, and two of the others are possible. ChatGPT's response is actually a better list than what two other rumor sites I saw had posted, though.
Meanwhile, another site just published a “Top 10 Best Cameras Under $500 for 2025” article where two of the cameras were well over US$500, two were not really still photography cameras, two were instant cameras, and one was designed for kids. Realistically, the best camera under US$500 right now is probably a used model ;~). And as I write this, it isn’t yet 2025, so their headline basically suggests that there won’t be a new, better option next year. Click baby, click.
Then there are the sites that are picking off lists of what sold during two weeks at one store in Japan and making as if that is information that says something about the global market. Nope. It says who was incentivizing sales people and what was actually in inventory to sell. To put that into context one dealer recently told me that a Leica Secret Shopper came to his store and afterwards he got a big lecture from Leica because he didn’t have any Leica cameras for customers to see. Well, that’s because he still has multiple backorders for all their cameras that Leica can’t deliver to him and he’s sold everything they have shipped him. Leica's not going to top any list at that store at the moment ;~).
Finally, we have sites now all regurgitating Shotkit's latest survey, implying that it reflects the market (it does not). Shotkit's data is derived from "1000 responses" to a survey link posted to "Facebook Groups, Shotkit email subscribers, and Shotkit Facebook followers." Curiously, they claim to have 57,000 newsletter subscribers, so are you telling me that you had what was probably a ~1% response rate from their newsletter subscribers? (Disclosure: I get greater than 10% response rates to my surveys, sometimes as high as 30%). Unfortunately, when you got to their question regarding which camera you use you got an annoyingly exhaustive list of cameras (Nikon SP? Really?) that had duplicates and missing cameras. Feels a little GIGO to me.
It’s not worth citing which sites the above were or give links, as there’s no reason why you should go to them and I’m not interested in giving them free clicks; they'd just see that as a reason to keep publishing useless information.
I worry that things aren’t going to get much better soon. 2024 only had 24 cameras of the types I cover on my sites, and at least four of those probably won’t get any love from me. The next significant release I’m aware of will come just prior to CP+ and probably in February, so we could have another month of this waiting around looking at other’s hallucinations.
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Bonus: Another "story" making the rounds is that Fujifilm had the two best selling cameras at MAP Camera (Japan) in 2024. There are big problems with a simple #1 through #10 list, though. Things have changed a bit in the US, where we don't have a lot of camera stores in one concentrated area any more. But it used to be that one store in town tended to sell Brand Y while another tended to sell Brand X, and the reason for that often had to do with dealer/distribution relationships and incentives. Then there's the issue of when cameras came on sale. The Fujifilm X100VI was introduced in February of last year and topped the sales list. Impressive. But the X-T50, Nikon Z6III, and Canon R5 Mark II all came out mid-year and were #2, #6, and #8, respectively, so that, too, is impressive. However, that all reflects the fact that cameras sell best when they first come out, then decline in ongoing volume. Which makes the Nikon Z8 in 10th place all the more impressive, as it not only is the second most expensive product on the list, but it's also been selling for over a year-and-a-half. That said, the biggest problem with such a list is we don't know the volume levels (actually, I'm not sure if we know if the list is based volume or yen, nor with the ILCs how they counted kits versus bodies, nor what incentives MAP offered customers on any of those products). Digicame-info made a comment I'd disagree with—and that's where most of the English sites got this information—"Canon is performing somewhat poorly in 8th and 9th place, and it is concerning that its new product, the EOS R5 Mark II, is not doing very well on Map Camera." Really? Ninth best selling camera in only a half year worth of sales when supplies were initially constrained is "not doing well"?
Photography Gets Costlier in 2025
We've got lots to talk about, but lets start with a basic trend for mirrorless cameras over the past several years:
The average selling price (left axis) of a mirrorless camera went up 200% in five years (bottom axis) according to CIPA. That probably reflects that the serious users who buy more expensive equipment have been transitioning from DSLR to mirrorless. The plateau of average selling price for the past three years is troublesome, though, as it hints that the primary buying spree for the highest end cameras may be over.
Still, as I pointed out in my recent article on zsystemuser, a lot of the dollars Nikon took in recent years came from just the Z8 and Z9, the two highest priced cameras in their lineup. More dollars from those two products than from any other line Nikon makes. For instance, the Z8/Z9 take has been about double the dollars that the Z6 lineup produced in its entire history in the US. The problem with this is the self-fulfilling prophecy that gets built in: to entice all those Z8/Z9 purchasers to buy again means you need something even higher end (new models and existing model iteration), and as you push more and more on high-priced products, you begin seeing volume drop-off. Let's face it, I have two Z9 bodies as my primary cameras. Is there anything they can't do? No. Getting me to replace them will be tough.
The camera companies are going to want more revenue in the future, so how do they get it? Some combination of: (1) push lower level camera users into higher end products; (2) sell subscriptions/features; (3) make more enticing, even higher priced cameras; (4) sell lenses, accessories, and services; (5) find new potential users; and (6) raise prices.
The Fujifilm X100VI turned out to be an almost perfect combo of #1, #3, and #5, but how many companies can replicate that kind of success (and how much of the X100VI’s success was luck in timing and viral hyping)? And can you do it with more than one product (i.e. across your entire lineup)?
We've seen the 24-33mp full frame sweet spot camera (R6, Z6, A7) slowly rising in price (not accounting for inflation), and I believe that the camera companies are hoping that they can do the same for their entire lineup, though that seems to be failing at the low end, where that US$1000 boundary is tough to push entry cameras above.
I just mentioned inflation. We're just now finding out that the camera companies were all hit with significantly higher semiconductor costs coming out of the pandemic, and that's slowed their development and delivery cycles as they try to adjust. I'm told by one insider that some inflation-caused costs haven't yet materialized in the final product cost, but probably will.
But throw into this the possibility of tariffs here in the US. The campaign promise was a 20% tariff on all foreign products—which would include all cameras and lenses, as none are made in the US—with the potential for higher tariffs on products coming out of certain countries, such as China (16 of Nikon's Z-mount lenses are made in China, for example, as are all of Tamron's).
Tariffs are effectively another form sales tax. It's possible (but not likely) that the camera makers would eat that tax themselves, much as B&H eats the state sales taxes via its PayBoo credit card, but I wouldn't count on it.
The combination of all the above factors makes me think that #6 (raise prices) is coming. We've already seen that in countries where the currency has declined against the dollar, but price bumps will eventually make their way to the US, as well (unless, of course, the yen somehow gets dramatically devalued for some reason).
Thus, if you're trying to stay current with your camera gear it's likely that you've already bought a higher-priced camera, or you will in the future. Photography's getting more expensive #1.
Meanwhile, you want to do something with the photos you took from that high end camera. That impacts computers and software. You probably have already heard that Adobe is raising their Photography Plan prices by 25 to 50% (unless you opt for a full year at a time). I hinted at this last fall when I first heard the rumblings, and now it's officially here: no 20GB Photography Plan for new customers, and price increases for the 1TB Lightroom and 20GB Photography Plan users.
Couple that with Photo Mechanic, TopazLabs, and others emphasizing full subscription, and now the software side of photography is tracking more as a on-going fixed expense instead of one you can cost manage by not buying updates when you don't have the money for them. Photography's getting more expensive #2.
But that's not all. As you moved up with your camera, you probably went to a higher pixel count (e.g. 24mp to 45mp). Your files are larger so you need new, larger cards and more storage for the resulting images. Because it takes longer to process the larger files, you need to upgrade your computer. Because new software is using AI and machine learning features more than ever before, you also need a new computer that has better GPU/NPU capabilities. Photography's getting more expensive #3.
Into this mix we have a lot happening behind the scene that hasn't fully surfaced yet. The Web sites that you go to learn about photography and the products you use are finding it more and more difficult to use the old ad-based and affiliate-driven revenue models to deliver "free" content. If they try to push more ads or links, they dilute their content and their user base goes away because readers don't want to have to sift through all that. Meanwhile, the amount the sites get from an individual ad keeps going down.
You've already seen Petapixel and CanonRumors push new membership models that remove the banner ads. I can tell you that in my discussions with every one of the big and serious photography sites, they're all talking about how to build new revenue streams they can rely upon. So either these sites go away due to declining revenue, or they find a way to charge you money. Photography's getting more expensive #4.
Hobbies have always been expensive. Going pro at anything always incurs significant expense, too. So in one way there's nothing really new in all the above. It does seem, however, that we currently have multiple factors simultaneously in play that are pushing harder at nibbling away your dollars, though.
I believe that 2025 will be a year where many more people start realizing just how much their costs are rising and start making significant changes in their habits to combat the money drain. The primary way that tends to happen is that the dedicated camera goes in the closet not to be used and, if the person still wants to take some photos, they just rely on their smartphone, because it's now competent at many things photography-wise.
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Bonus: lest the "creator" community think they're immune from the above because they can just use their smartphone, they need to think again. Sure, the smartphone-to-social-media thing seems free, because you need a phone anyway and the social media sites don't charge you anything to post. But it isn't free if you want to stand out in any way. I've watched the influencer/creator folk scramble more and more to function in that social media free-for-all; if they actually want to make money off spending all their time posting short form content and generating followers, they actually start buying more gear, spending more time processing, doing more elaborate staging, and putting in more marketing and promotion efforts so that they can get to user base numbers where companies like YouTube and others will actually pay them. It's pay to play, baby.
Recalculating Route...
You may remember back in August of 2024 when I surveyed site readers hinting at some potential big changes I was contemplating. You might have also noticed I didn't report the findings and there have been no changes.
So let's start with that survey. Many thousands of votes—I closed the survey fairly quickly when it produced more than enough data to contemplate—said that 60% of you wanted me to keep the sites/books/workshops as is, while a quarter of you would opt for a US$5/month subscription. That was pretty much verification of what I had already concluded. Moreover, I had already planned changes that would likely keep most of that 85% happy (and no, it wasn't a subscription per se I was planning). Indeed, during August and September I was mostly working on the New byThom I had hoped to announce today. I'm not going to make that announcement, though.
What I had started to put together was a huge expansion of my work and offerings, and that requires investment, time, extensive travel, expanded office/studio, better real-time broadcasting abilities, and hiring some help to make it all work right. You might have gotten a hint at what some of that might entail if you were in LA on Black Friday, but what you saw there was the tip of the New byThom projected iceberg.
The US Presidential election results, and the chaos that has ensued as our new President announced the contestants for Celebrity Cabinet Season 2—who'll eventually all resign or be fired; you know the format of this show—put me off making that investment and any of the planned changes. I won't go into detail about why that is, as it involves both a political and economic discussion that is far outside my sites' coverage. I'd like to stick to teaching and explaining what's happening in photography, thank you. However, I will say that I'm not alone in my hesitation of business expansion in the current highly unpredictable market. Populists don’t have a track record of creating a reliable and predictable business environment.
So instead of greatly expanding my offerings, I'm going to take my foot off the gas pedal and coast. I'll spend less time on byThom and use that time to do some other things I've put off.
Curiously, back in September I received another offer to buy my Web sites, well into the six figures. If it were about money, I would have taken the Path of the Greenback a long time ago. Over the years I've done almost nothing to increase the return from my work; no marketing, no concerted SEO (search engine optimization), no promotions, no sales, a reduction in affiliate links, no piling on of ads, no nothing. I must say I was tempted to sell, as it would solve a problem my eventual executor will have.
The most interesting thing about my August 2024 survey was the enormous number of emails I received related to it, most quite lengthy and detailed. Thank you to those who took the time to explain your thoughts or make suggestions. I didn't have the capacity to respond to all your responses, but I did read every one very carefully and pondered what it meant in the grand scheme of things.
So where are we, and where are we going?
I am making some changes to my sites starting today. Let's start with the easier ones:
- dslrbodies.com is effectively beginning discontinuation. Because it's likely that we'll not see any new DSLRs in the future and I never fully built out the Canon side, I've simplified the existing site into a remembrance of all things Nikon DSLR. Other than the Canon bits, nothing has been removed, it's just been organized into a simpler structure that's easier to navigate. The real issue is that it's not likely to get much added in the future (though there are new posts there today ;~).
- sansmirror.com is in torpor. Even with the decrease in the number of new cameras being introduced each year, there's simply no way I can do justice to reviewing the entire mirrorless camera and lens field on my own. I will continue to cover major news drops, update the databases, plus a bit more, but given my change in plans don't expect sansmirror to be a constantly updating site that goes deep on new reviews. As with dslrbodies, I'll be simplifying the sansmirror site structure and do some minor reorganization. I have some more to do in that respect, though.
The more complicated bits have to do with my most visited and updated sites:
- zsystemuser.com will eventually be redesigned. Originally I was going to hire help on this, but I've decided instead to tackle the job myself, which will take some time, and take me away from other things I had planned. In the meantime, it's business as usual on that site. It's where I'll likely devote most of my effort in the near future. I actually had much more planned for this site than you currently see. As long as I'm going solo and not putting more investment in, zsystemuser will simply grow slower and more organically.
- bythom.com is in flux. Nothing is really happening here for the time being. I've done a bit of simplification/reorganization, but only a bit. This site will sort of go on as it has for the time being, though with much of my personal time being directed elsewhere the frequency of news/views posts will likely go down. Most of the substantial additions I was planning would have appeared on this site (and an adjacent extension, wink, wink), but now are in limbo. We do have a new logo, though ;~).
- Books are getting some attention. I had hoped to have a consolidated book site done with completely new payment and download capabilities, but this is taking longer than I had anticipated, as I'm now doing the work myself. Suffice it to say, I want to make the book-buying/downloading/reading experience even better than it has been, and there's a bunch of small things that need to be done to make that possible. As part of this, I may bring a few older books back into availability, so stand by.
So for the 60% of you who indicated that you wanted no changes, you sort of got what you wanted, though with simplification and lower frequency. But as you adjust to the above changes, I'll bet that near status quo is not actually what you wanted. The demand for me to do more is constant, but instead it will now appear I'm doing less. It is what it is. Until I'm convinced that I can do what I originally intended to do without being disrupted by other factors, the above is what you'll get.
How’s the Bonding Going?
So, you received a new camera for the holidays. At this point you’ve likely had time to fiddle with it, but today’s headline question is the important one: have you bonded with your new camera yet?
I’ve been preaching some form of this notion since I first started writing about cameras. Your camera is a tool. You have to learn how to use that tool. The very best practitioners don’t just learn their tool, but the tool becomes second nature to them. They know exactly what it will and won’t do and how to coax it to do what they want.
At some point users become so close to their tools that you’d be very ill-advised to try to pry them from their hands and substitute something else.
To some degree this explains those hanging onto DSLRs. Mirrorless is indeed a different experience (tool) than DSLR, and once someone owns a near-perfect DSLR such as the Nikon D850, it’s tough to convince them to start the bonding process from scratch with something else. This is one of the reasons why sticking with a brand is useful during transitions: a Canon RF camera these days definitely has the traditional Canon EOS touch, feel, and more (the early R and RP models did not do that well, though, which explains Canon’s slow start to getting full frame traction in the mirrorless world). Nikon has moved their DSLR user experience mostly unchanged to the mirrorless Z System (though they continue to fiddle with small things that have me wondering why they’re moving my cheese).
Some of the recent “complaints” about the Sony A1 II intersect with today’s topic: the II model didn’t really change much, so why would I need to pay to upgrade to it? (That was also a common topic in the height of the DSLR era, as model iterations often didn’t change much.)
Bonding (usually) isn’t a natural thing: it takes study, time, and practice. You might resist that bonding at first because, well, your new toy tool is very different. However, if you don’t bond with it, I can pretty much guarantee that it either gets stuffed into a closet and rarely used, or you’ll be looking for a new camera soon.
How Does That Lens Look?
I’m not home as I write this so don’t have access to my full lens set or the ability to set scenes up to demonstrate the difference, so we’re going to do this with words. In some ways, working with words is better, because we won’t get hung up on things you do or don’t see in a compressed JPEG image on whatever size display you’re looking at.
A question that came up several times in my recent LA appearance had to do with “which lens is better?” That’s not an answerable question without more parameters being considered.
At one point I talked about the Nikkor f/1.8 S primes versus the Nikkor f/1.4, f/2, and f/2.8 primes. I believe these sets are all designed to very different standards. The words I tend to use for the f/1.8 S primes is that they are clinically clean. By this I mean that from center to corner they render with minimal aberrations that impact the capture. While the frame corner wide open may be softer than the center, it’s generally not by a lot, and it’s just a lack of acutance, not distortions caused by coma, spherical aberration, or field curvature. Linear distortions tend to be smallish and well corrected, too. Typically the biggest fault with those f/1.8 S primes tends to be something like vignetting, which is a natural attribute fairly predictable by image circle size, and tends to be easily correctable in processing. Thus the f/1.8 S lenses are clinical in their rendering.
The f/1.4 primes that Nikon recently introduced, along with the 26mm f/2.8, 28mm f/2.8, 40mm f/2, and even the 50mm f/2.8 macro Nikon has produced, are designed to a different standard. One that is more traditional, where accuracy of information in the corners isn’t considered as important. However, those blurry corners also are designed to be a bit like bokeh: soft and dreamy is better than stretched, messy, and busy. Nikon went through a period in the F-mount where they started paying much more attention to that, and we got several lenses—such as the 58mm f/1.4—that were sharp in the center wide open and “well behaved” otherwise. Back in the film era, a number of Nikons had clear color fringing in the corners, and that was something that called attention to itself, so we’d never call that well behaved.
Clinical versus Well behaved. Two different design approaches.
One of the longer discussions we had in Los Angeles—we were in proximity of the Hollywood sign, after all—was that filmmakers, and now videographers, tend to like lenses that aren’t clinical. That’s because they want you paying attention to the subject, and not get distracted by something else, especially things in the corners. Coupled with the inherent blur that comes with 24 fps, you want the things that aren’t your focused subject(s) to be blurred, too, particularly if the camera is moving or rotating (both detail and nasty artifacts in the corners coupled with motion call attention to themselves). Some video-specific lenses are notorious for not even attempting to be the sharpest tool in the box—that older actor doesn’t want any age wrinkles showing—but even if the center is what we’d all agree is sharp, the Hollywood gang really doesn’t want that to be true all the way out to the frame corners.
On the other hand, if you want to jar a movie audience, you do pick a lens that is brutally sharp, you narrow the shutter angle, pick up the frame rate, and voila, instant impact. I’ve noticed a lot of recent movies, particularly horror and blockbuster action ones, that will make a lens and settings swap for an action scene that puts you on edge and doesn't let your eyes relax anywhere in the frame, but then falls back to their regular lenses and settings for everything else.
One area where Nikon doesn't always get this right has to do with rendering of background lights out of focus. The 135mm f/1.8 S Plena does get this right: round, out of focus blur to the corners. Most of Nikon's other primes tend to have blur circles that get cut by things that shade the image circle, which results in cats eye in the corners. In watching a lot of streaming shows these days, I can almost tell which lenses are being used solely by what happens to something like a string of holiday or decorative lights in the background that are not in focus. If those aren't round all the way into the corners, it's likely a recent Nikon or Sony lens on the camera ;~). I wonder if RED dare tell Nikon that they need to fix this?
But getting back to the headline question, there's a very specific answer that tells you the difference between a really well-designed lens and one where shortcuts were taken: are you noticing things about the lens's look other than clinical versus well-behaved? In other words, are you even noticing a specific attribute of the lens, at all?
Generally speaking, if an attribute of a lens stands out on casual observation, that's not something you want in the "look" of your lens. Back in the film era, some of the lens look was masked by the layers and grains involved with film. Indeed, some companies tried to hide chromatic aberration by designing to a specific film stock (whose layers would dictate where red, blue, green were recorded). When we moved to DSLRs, those older lenses no longer looked as good as we thought they did because of that. Nikon, for example, started changing their lens design with the old 17-35mm f/2.8D, which came out with the D1 in 1999. The older 20-35mm f/2.8D, by comparison, shows lots of things you notice immediately: it's not clinical or well-behaved on a digital camera.
But let's get back to the point: do you want your images to look clinically correct wide open? Then the f/1.8 S lenses are your choice. On the other hand if you want your wide open images to look well-behaved, you can dip into the other optics Nikon is producing (e.g. the f/1.4 primes) without fear.
In the zoom lenses, the Tamron-produced set is (mostly) well-behaved, while the Nikkor f/2.8 S zooms are clinically sharp.
Your choice. Nikon is giving you that choice, and you should be happy they are.
Update: it seems like my use of the word "clinical" is bunching up a few folk's underwear. I'm going to stick by that word usage, as I believe it correctly captures my sense of what the S lenses are doing: they're like you'd expect in a proper clinic: clean, organized, nothing out of place, no random element that shouldn't be there. The word "clean" by itself does not fully capture the nature of the S lenses. Moreover, I'd argue that you can have "clean blur," in the sense that the blur is just blur, without unwanted elements added to it. I do not believe the word "clinical" is in any way pejorative; I think that bias I see in some people's interpretation of my words is coming from something else in their life that makes them think clinics are bad. Indeed, I suspect they're applying the third definition in The American Heritage Dictionary: objective and devoid of emotion, coolly analytical. As an analytical sort of dude, I find no problem with that ;~). Moreover, objective seems to be something an objective (optical element) should do.
Personally, I find my use of the words "well behaved" more of a problem and not fully capturing what I'm trying to say, the opposite of how most people are responding to the two ways of referring to lenses I used.
As a writer I spend long periods of time pondering word usage. In my twenties I used words poorly, as my copywriter ex-wife would gladly tell you. With each passing decade I've put more thought into them and tried to make sure what I was thinking was properly reflected in what you read. There are benefits to age, after all.
The real thing to take away from the article is that we have two very different design approaches by Nikon with their Z-mount lenses. Indeed, there may be three or four once we drill down and examine everything more carefully. The S side of the Z-mount offerings are some of best and most consistent rendering optics we've seen from anyone (though Sony GM is now pretty much there, too, other than linear distortion). The remaining lenses can be very good, but they have personality.
I haven't yet run the f/1.4 primes through their paces—I just picked them up from some crazy owner at some random camera store in Los Angeles over Thanksgiving—so I reserve the right to revise my opinion on those (though I didn't offer much of one other than a parenthetical phrase). One reason why a few reviews haven't yet appeared is that I'm spending a bit more time trying to fully evaluate certain aspects of lens design. As I started developing this Clinical versus Behaved hypothesis, I started diving deeper into certain kinds of testing to try understand what was driving that thought. That's proving trickier than I first thought, as I now am starting to understand that, at least in the Behaved lenses, it's the intersection of several design aspects that drives that, not one individual one.
Smartphones v. Cameras 2024 Edition
In the smartphone versus dedicated camera comparisons I keep seeing, there's an interesting sub-theme that everyone seems to be missing. It actually corresponds to why I decided to write Mastering Nikon JPEGs (due in Q1 2025).
Put simply, everyone is comparing smartphone "build-a-scene" with camera defaults.
What do I mean by this? Let's start with "build-a-scene." Almost all smartphones today run with the sensor actively before and after any "shutter release" action. They take anywhere from eight to 32 images and run the image processor on all of them to create the "moment" you pressed the shutter release, but with additional information from the sub-frames. This is how smartphones look less noisy than their sensors are: they're stacking static portions of the image to remove the photon randomness caused by how little light got to the image sensor.
The latest and greatest smartphones do even more machine-learned processing than that; it's one of the reasons why Apple started putting Neural processing cores in Apple Silicon: to speed that up. Edge detection, motion detection, and a host of other detections are all done on the full set of pixels before producing a final image. The so-called Portrait modes first subject detect, then process the subject and background frames differently.
Some people call this computational photography, though most of the algorithms I've seen are really just machine-learned post processing done in real time. In the end, both iPhone and Android devices are essentially doing one heck of a lot of pixel pinching, pushing, crunching, inventing, and more.
Could you do the same with say, a Pixel shift image stack in a dedicated camera? Absolutely.
Meanwhile, the dedicated cameras in pretty much all of the image comparisons I've seen are essentially "taken at camera defaults." The reasoning behind this goes way, way back (20 years or more). Essentially, it boils down to "I guess this is what the camera makers wanted us to see." Virtually every reviewer or comparison maker probably thinks they could create better out-of-camera images than the camera defaults, but they don't have the balls to try that in public.
What the camera makers have always had to do is make devices that move to the mean for an average user that doesn't want to spend any time thinking about setting things. Mostly because it starts to get too complicated to do anything else (remember, even the smartphones are using AI/machine learning to do it at all).
So what's really being compared is Auto Processing (smartphone) versus Auto Settings (cameras).
Frankly, I think the camera makers missed a beat or two along the way. That's particularly true of fixed lens cameras, but it's become true of mirrorless cameras, as well. If the image sensor is running all the time, as it is in those two cases, you'd think that you could build a better understanding of the scene that you can apply when the photographer actually presses the shutter release. Instead, it appears that almost all dedicated cameras look briefly at the most current information, make simple adjustments, then punt that data if anything changes (focus, setting, composition, you name it). The most recent single sample taken prior to the shutter release seems to be what generates white balance, exposure, and color decisions.
One thing I noticed once Apple started letting us iPhone users get to the original data (or at least a subset of it) was that I could get better-looking images out of my smartphone than all of Apple's intelligence could. Hmm. That corresponds to what happened when the camera makers gave us raw image formats ;~).
Unfortunately, most of the customers using a camera of any sort, perhaps nearly all of them (>90%), want automagic, a word I invented something like 40 years ago. In other words, press a button and the machine does all the thinking, setting, and rearranging for you. What is really being compared in every one of the smartphone versus dedicated camera comparisons I've see to date is "how's the automagic work?" I'll give the gold crown here to Apple first and foremost, with Google a step behind, and Samsung, et.al. right there at their tails. Dedicated cameras bring up the rear.
Funny thing is, Nikon at one time worked on this problem with Coolpix. With things like Best Shot Selection they were doing exactly what the smartphone makers jumped on later: don't just look at one frame! Nikon also deployed a version of Live Photo (something Apple also later added) as well as a bunch of other things. I can't say anything more here due to NDAs, but at one point I was hired as an expert to do patent search and analysis in exactly this area. It's interesting that the camera makers didn't defend a turf they had already started exploring.
Unfortunately, the camera makers are now in a tough situation. The R&D cost of full battle with the smartphone capabilities while running an image sensor constantly and improving that with neural engines doesn't spread well among the few remaining units the Japanese are selling of dedicated cameras these days. In actuality, even the phone makers are grappling with that same problem now that smartphone sales have stalled on a volume plateau far above the dedicated cameras. One reason why you're seeing Apple pour so much of each iPhone generation difference into the camera side is that it's still the one point where they can clearly differentiate and improve compared to other smartphones, but you have to wonder how long those legs are. Apple's marketing has already turned to AI as the new differentiator, for example.
So what's Thom's Maxim here?
Thom's Maxim #237: If you have all the data, you can always do better than a built-in automated process.
Yes, automatic features are nice to have. No, they don't produce the best possible results.
Global Shutter Fervor
Canon announced a new global shutter image sensor available to other companies this week, and that has all the photography Web sites salivating over possible APS-C global shutter cameras.
The problem? Canon's available sensor is a 16:9 crop, essentially Super35, not APS-C. It's also only 10.3mp, which would be considered low for modern still cameras (though it allows for full pixel use 4K video at 60P).
Yes, there are rumors that the eventual R7 Mark II will have a global shutter, but it doesn't seem that this new available-to-all chip is a precursor of that, particularly considering that the current R7 is 33mp.
Will there be third-party video cameras that use this chip? Unclear. The only client I know of using Canon's previous chips is Illunis, an industrial and security camera company.
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