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This page of the site contains the latest 10 articles to appear on bythom, followed by links to the archives.
Compacts Get Bigger

With today's Fujifilm announcement of the GFX100RF, we now have a new thing to contemplate, the 102mp compact camera. Curiously, Fujifilm makes a point of claiming "lightest camera in the series to date" (25.9 ounces, or 735g). Okay, but that's over 7 ounces (200g+) heavier than Fujifilm's own 40mp X100VI, so the question very quickly becomes whether or not you really need that medium format sensor and all it brings to the table.
It is interesting that Fujifilm decided upon a 28mm equivalent f/4 lens for the GFX100RF—the X100VI has a 35mm equivalent f/2—providing it also with in camera 36mm, 50mm, and 63mm crops (the X100VI has 50mm and 70mm crops). As I'll note in my upcoming X100VI review the take-with-crop option is useful once you have pixels galore to deal with. One thing Fujifilm avoids talking about, though, is that the GFX line is 4:3 aspect ratio, not 3:2 (you can get a 3:2 crop from the camera, as well as eight other choices).
For the most part, the GFX100RF is an upsized X100VI. The controls are mostly the same, particularly the dials and de-minimus function buttons. The focus mode switch does move off the side of the camera where it tended to get moved, there's new aspect ratio and crop controls, but that's about it. While the GFX100RF doesn't have the hybrid viewfinder of its smaller brother, the EVF is now 5.76m dots with a big .84x magnification and an "optical simulation" mode when using crops. The body is once again available as all black or in panda clad (silver over black). The big difference to the X100VI is that the GFX100RF does not have sensor stabilization; coupled with the f/4 lens, that's going to pose issues with getting everything possible out of that 102mp image sensor when handholding. One other difference over the X100VI is that Fujifilm includes the special filter that makes the camera more weather resistant; this is an option with the X100VI.
You might have noticed that crop comes up a lot in the description of this new camera. I'm not convinced there's a huge (or any) need for 28mm angle of view at 102mp, and I think that Fujifilm figured this out themselves. Virtually all the crops on this camera provide at least 24mp level of pixel output, so the question quickly becomes whether or not the user is going to spend the time while photographing to do the cropping, and what they'd actually do with finished images that are different pixel counts.
This is the most Leica-ish camera Fujifilm has yet produced, in the sense that it's a high-priced luxury item as much as it is a functional product. At US$4900 list, it's triple the price of an X100VI, which functionally does much the same thing. Yes, I know I'm going to get a ton of "but larger sensors are better" complaints in my In Box after that statement, but having used the X100VI for awhile now, it's more than enough camera for 99% of the likely audience. This is the "a V12 is better than a straight line 6" type of argument in another form. For a fairly narrow customer set, that may be true. For most people, no.
That said, there is one aspect of the camera that might prove popular with a subset of photographers: the leaf shutter means that flash photography can be done at any shutter speed. Just as sports photographers went through a period where they learned how to overpower the sun, I suspect the influencer crowd is about to do the same thing.
Personally, for the type of work I'd carry and use a compact camera for, the X100VI is already above what I need and produces excellent results. If I were producing large output work that would clearly benefit from the larger image sensor, I personally would opt for the interchangeable lens GFX100S II, because I'd need wider optics at the one end, and I wouldn't want to lose pixels at the telephoto end. So I'm back to the Leica argument about the GFX100RF: there's a snobbish, exclusivity appeal that will sell this camera, not the functional capability (as good as it might be). Fujifilm's own headline includes the words "premium compact camera."
And sell this camera will. Fujifilm seems to have locked into the "if we can't win playing the same game, we'll play a different game" strategy. X-Trans, huge pixel counts, legacy-styling, metal body designs, and a focus on mid-range primes are all very targeted product marketing. Fujifilm is locking more into the "want" than the "need" these days in how they describe what they're producing.
An Industry Problem
I’ve mentioned supply chain issues in the past. Now they may be intersecting with a new problem. Let’s dive in.
One source who should know tells me that the primary supply chain issue right now is image sensors. Getting new ones not only into production but at the quantity the market might demand is apparently really tough right now. The Sony A1 II supply, for instance, is probably choking on image sensor scarcity at the moment (other low supply parts might be impacting shipments, as well).
What apparently is happening is that when you find that you need more image sensors than you projected (and originally ordered), getting additional production on fab just isn’t going to be a simple phone call asking for more.
You might have noticed that the final CIPA shipment numbers for 2024 exceeded the original projections back at the start of the year. Those projections are made from the conglomerated individual manufacturers production forecasts. And those original 2024 projections could be characterized as “another year like 2023.”
If you look at the monthly shipment numbers, though, you’ll see that 2024 started “hotter” than 2023 in January, then 2024 mostly mimicked 2023 until September, at which point 2024 suddenly showed growth that didn’t happen the previous year. I’ll bet some of that was image sensor orders finally catching up. The overall ILC bodies trended about 10% higher for the year. Thus, if you said to the fab you needed 100 image sensors at the start of last year, you found you needed 110. Overall, the Japanese makers needed about 600,000 more image sensors in 2024 than they did in 2023. That by itself takes up a lot of fab time and wafers.
Now let’s say you want to introduce a new camera with a new image sensor. Squeezing 10% more existing sensors out of the production lines is one thing, but now you want another 2%, but from sensors that have never been done before (or are special in that they are stacked and require more and better production time)?
Let’s take Nikon for example. They have basically six image sensors (20mp DX, three variations of 24mp FX, two 45mp FX). Of those, four are basically older image sensors (20mp DX, two 24mp FX, one 45mp FX) and two are “special” and newer (24mp FX partial stacked and 45mp FX stacked). Everyone keeps asking when Nikon will drop a new >45mp FX sensor, a >20mp DX sensor, or another “special” sensor (e.g. stacked). Historically, their last two “new” sensors were in 2020 (Z9) and 2024 (Z6III). So age-wise we get:
- 10 years old — 24mp FX (Z5, Z6, Z6II, Zf, the latter one with minor changes)
- 8 years old — 20mp DX (all DX Z’s)
- 7 years old — 45mp FX (Z7, Z7II)
- 4 years old — 45mp stacked FX (Z8, Z9)
- 1 year old — 24mp partial stacked FX (Z6III)
If you look at the other makers, you see similar patterns. Sony’s “newest” image sensors are 2021 (2) and 2023. Getting new sensor tech on fab is slowing down and large sensor fab utilization apparently remains at 100% (or more), so new image sensors are coming more slowly now.
So image sensors are a big part of the supply chain issues that the camera companies are struggling with.
What’s the new problem that intersects? Little or no demand for the same image sensors. Oops ;~).
Recently I've seen three different photography sites complaining that they didn’t get any affiliate commissions for newly announced cameras, because no one clicked on the link and ordered one.
We’ve had six cameras introduced so far this year, only two of which have new image sensors. Three of the older sensor cameras that were just introduced have little demand, and were part of those affiliate link failures I just mentioned. Another is a new body for an old inside (it’s an OM-3 on the outside, OM-1 II on the inside). So how does the market continue to grow? By selling more bodies with the same image sensor? I don’t think so.
It’s not that you can’t create a “better” camera with an “older” image sensor. The Sony A1 II and Nikon Z50II are good examples of re-invigorating a model without needing a new sensor. The Fujifilm X-M5 is a “different” camera than Fujifilm has done in the past with the same image sensor. But in general, it feels to me that a number of companies are not quite getting things right. The biggest part of their long-term success will be upgrading, not new customers buying older sensor products.
It doesn’t help that CMOS image sensors have pretty much climbed the hill. We’ve been stuck on the top of a plateau for a while now with dynamic range (DR). As I like to put it: “in most circumstances, current cameras record the randomness of photons accurately.” Moreover, the real challenge in DR that hasn’t been breeched is saturation, not noise floor, which is where everyone's misplaced attention has been.
The primary thing that new image sensors seem to be concentrating on is speed. Speed helps both with quantity of pixels the sensor can have, as well as things like removing the physical shutter and lowering costs (e.g. Z8, Z9). But advancements in speed are essentially driven by a form of Moore’s Law, so it’s tough to really break a new sensor out in a way that others can’t also do. Another aspect of this is that dedicated camera image sensors have traditionally been done on old, larger process fabs where you can't get "easy" speed benefits by using smaller process size. Unfortunately, fabs that can do small process are the ones that are most utilized at the moment, to the point where at the current "best" processes you have maybe four customers locking up all of production. (None of those are camera makers.)
Meanwhile, we just keep getting “more” piled into the bodies themselves via menus. I got a headache staring at the details for the just-announced Panasonic S1RII's video capabilities: over 60 different settings, which produces six different crops, has compression interdependencies, and varies in bit rate. Plus there’s some other footnotes you need to apply to fully understand a setting!
I really have to ask how many people need 60 different FullHD, 4K, 6K, and 8K settings. How many can even keep track of what all of them do and how they differ? Are all these settings actually used by someone? Is that what we really want camera makers to concentrate on: adding more and more choices?
Yes, I’m sure there’s some customer somewhere that will appreciate all that choice. It isn’t me, and I’m pretty sophisticated as a user. My number one request of Nikon—I predominately use Z8’s and Z9’s for my work—is to provide a truly useful save/restore settings function, not to give me another video option. A settings system where I can name my camera settings files (birding, wildlife, football, ice hockey, portrait, etc.) and restore them with a single command (or better yet, button press, e.g. Cycle saved settings).
Which brings us to the thing that’s really holding the camera industry back: they think they’re designing hardware, not software. If you think about what a modern mirrorless camera is, it is data coming from an image sensor processed by a SoC (System on Chip), coupled with some form of interface where the customer tells the SoC what to do with that data. “Processing” and “Interface” are software tasks, not hardware ones (though they may involve some hardware).
So while the Tokyo camera makers all wait for new image sensors and more production of them, they’re really staring at the wrong problem. They’re failing at software, not hardware.
You can think about that this way: if I told you that you had to use the existing Sony Exmor 24mp sensor (or any other currently existing image sensor) and design the perfect camera using it, what would happen? It doesn’t matter what you think “perfect” is; such a camera would produce excellent images that print really well to 19” on the long axis (because that’s where 24mp sensor state-of-the-art is). In other words, it’s not the image sensor that’s holding anything back.
A lot of people have poo-pooed Sigma’s recently announced bf camera. I don’t. Sigma is tackling exactly what I just asked in the last paragraph. Good on them. I see some design decisions in the bf that I agree with and many I don’t, but at least it’s not just another DSLR-like 24mp camera with as many features as we can cram into it. It’s a camera company challenging what “perfect” might actually be.
Likewise, I’ve found I tend to like Leica’s current modern UI (DLux-8, Q3, etc.). I’m not menu diving with these cameras, I’m pretty directly making the settings changes I need to make, and only those.
Need another example to understand my point? Look no further than the Nikon Z9. When I first was given a pre-release unit to take to Africa and test, what I found was that the Z9 was a really good camera, better than anything Nikon had done in mirrorless to date and mostly equalling or bettering what Canon and Sony were doing at the time. Then we got firmware 2.x. Then 3.x. Then 4.x. Then 5.x. Each time the already excellent camera became better. Why? Because the software was refined and added to. Amazingly, the Z9 still hasn't caught up to what Nikon knows how to do (content authentication, HEIF, Pixel shift shooting, etc.). Whether that means we get firmware 6.x or a Z9II with mostly software changes—I'd bet on an EVF upgrade, but not much else on the hardware side—doesn't particularly matter.
While many of you sit and wait for the latest and greatest hardware to finally arrive at your dealer, I'm personally waiting for the Japanese camera companies to get better at software. Way better. Because that's really what's needed to break out of the current volume doldrums and attract both new and upgrading customers.
Interesting Things Written on the Internet (Volume 27)
"[the market] is looking at a four or five percent increase through 2030 year-over-year." — Zeiss manager explaining why they got back into providing new lenses.
Okay, let's deal with the numbers first. Full frame lenses sold about 5m units in 2024. A 4-5% growth rate suggests as many as 6.5m units in 2030.
But here's why I call bull**** on Zeiss: they claim that they stopped introducing new lenses because the pre-pandemic predictions were that the market decrease would be "dire." So what was the number of full frame lenses sold in 2019? Just about 5m units. Yes, 2020 was a down year, but that was pandemic induced. 2021 was already back to 4.6m units, hardly dire, and the numbers have grown slightly each year from there.
Do I believe the 5% growth a year for five years bit? No. If my body shipment predictions are correct, for there to be long-term continued full frame lens market growth that high, the attachment rate—number of lenses sold per body—would have to go up.
Photography journalists don't tend to ask tough questions or attempt to illicit a full explanation of any assertion. Zeiss thinks that the above is a good explanation for why they didn't introduce lenses for five years. I'd say that's probably not the reason. However, if it was the reason, then Zeiss is basically saying they don't know how to analyze the market very well.
However, if you really want slog through the bull****, consider Zeiss's answer to why the new Otus lenses are about US$2000 lower in price than the old ones: "We’ve been able to modify the design and update it for a [shorter, wider] mount. This allows us to use less material, essentially, so we can continue to have the same exact quality in a less expensive and much smaller lens." Okay, take the 50mm Otus ML: it has an extra optical element compared to the older DSLR lens that was more expensive. Is Zeiss really trying to tell us they took US$2000 worth of metal out of the lens just because there's no mirrorbox on the camera?
I get it. Marketing is hard. But thinking that customers don't see through your statements is delusional. Tell us why the new Otus is a better lens than the original Otus. That could be as simple as a statement such as "every bit of the optical performance at 60% of the price." And since I don't believe that they made that price reduction simply because of "less material," then probably something like "we rethought our supply chain and manufacturing processes to get efficiencies that helped us lower our price without compromising our quality."
Come on guys, this isn't rocket science.
"We can't disclose the contents of contracts, such as licenses, to the public." — Canon's answer when asked about third-party lenses at CP+ (again)
A more likely, more honest answer probably would have been "we don't want to disclose such information”, since such contracts would have originated at Canon. Indeed, he continued "all I can say is that we are deciding the contents of contracts within our business strategy." Aha! That's tantamount to Canon saying they are controlling what third-party lenses do or don't appear. From observation, that seems to be manual focus and RF-S lenses, and probably because Canon doesn't want to make those themselves.
Personally, I don't know which approach I'd take if I were in charge of a camera/lens maker such as Fujifilm, Nikon, Sony, OMDS, Panasonic, or Sony. However, in my long tech career the one thing I do know is that whatever I decided, I would clearly communicate what it was to my customers, as well as the reason for the decision. In the conspiracy-theory brewing that dominates the Internet, to do otherwise is to generate enormous frictions against your business goals.
So here we are after a second consecutive CP+ trade show where Canon ducked the question and are now encountering yet another round of pushback from customers, and worse, potential customers.
Today, here's how I see the "mount openness" stands, from most open to least:
- K mount — effectively dead as there's only one supplier of very few cameras, but as far as I know, there are no bars to creating a K-mount lens.
- m4/3 mount, L-mount — you have to join an association and follow their guidelines, but once in and abiding by the rules, anything goes. The association controls changes/additions to the mount, not a company.
- Fujifilm XF, Sony E/FE mount — you have to sign an agreement with the company, which then provides you access to the full mount details and communications. You have to follow the maker's rules but can make any lens you want; you're not going to be changing or adding to the mount info, though.
- Nikon Z mount — you have to sign an agreement with the company, which will limit what lenses you can and can't produce, but Nikon seems to encourage others to fill holes in their lineup (e.g. Sigma, Tamron).
- Canon RF mount — you have to sign an agreement with the company, and you'll be told what lenses you can't make, and right now that apparently includes any full frame autofocus lenses.
While Canon continues to dominate the unit volume in cameras (around 50%), we've seen serious erosion nibbling away at them, particularly from two more open mounts: L-mount and particularly in the E/FE mount. Moreover, that erosion is happening with the most serious users, who value lens choice. In the telephoto realm, for example, an FE mount user can now find Sigma, Sony, and Tamron options that are compelling, while a Z mount user can find Nikon and Tamron optics. Canon users? You're stuck with what Canon provides, so I hope you like what they've done.
Year's before Canon discontinued the M series, I wrote that they would have to end-of-life that mount (and I have now been proven correct). Here's my next prediction: Canon will have to open the RF mount to third parties or else find entire segments of the higher end market that they've essentially ceded to Leica, Nikon, Panasonic, and Sony.
Ironically, interchangeable lens cameras are called "systems cameras" in Japan. I’d just like to point something out: if you limit the "system," you eventually limit your sales. Customers rebel when corralled, so Canon needs to take off the cowboy hat, get off their horse, and let the herd graze open land.
“The OM-3 is not a successor of the Pen series.” — OMDS management at CP+ [source: PetaPixel]
It was only a few weeks earlier that OMDS told Photographyblog "the OM-3 is effectively the replacement for the much-loved Olympus Pen-F”. So is Photographyblog lying, or is OMDS revising its statements? Or perhaps no one sent a company-wide memo as to the company position on this, so different managers are saying different things. It doesn’t matter which it is, this is the way you lose customer confidence. If Photographyblog was misleading us, OMDS needed to step in and correct that statement. If managers are saying different things, then OMDS needs to get them all on the same page and issue a company statement, not individual manager statements. If OMDS is revising its thoughts, then it should simply say “after hearing from our customer base, we are reconsidering producing a new Pen model.”
The world is a pretty topsy turvy place right now. But if you want to retain current customers and attract new ones, your messaging needs to be clear, consistent, and sometimes corrected publicly.
I’ve been pretty consistent about Olympus' and now OMDS’s product line failures: they need a compact m4/3 camera to compete with the GR-3 and X100VI—and I’ll remind them that they used to own this market with the Stylus 35 back in the film era—plus they really should take the Tough into m4/3, too. Neither of those are trivial design challenges, but they would also represent real sales (and customer) growth for the company if they existed. Squeezing another model between OM-5 and OM-1 that deviates mostly stylistically isn’t a big growth choice.
Swings and Misses, Staring at Pitches, Lack of Team Play
Today's headline is a baseball metaphor because I know the Japanese understand baseball. I'm going to use the company I know best for my examples, but don't read too much into that: I can write essentially the same article about Canon, Fujifilm, OMDS, Panasonic, and Sony. This is a cultural problem, not a corporate one. It's time to shift the culture.
Swing and a Miss
Let's start with the most recent Swing-and-a-Miss. That would be the Nikon Coolpix P1100. You know those times when the staff finishes a product as shouts "nailed it!" Well, Nikon's staff finished the project and said whispered "mailed it!” (As in “mailed it in.”)
What was the R&D budget for the P1100, 100 yen? Notes from management to staff said (1) replace serial port with USB-C; (2) do something that says "birds" in the menus. Mailed it!
Let me be frank (okay, let me be thom ;~): the lens in the P1000 (and now in the P1100) was for the most part wasted in that camera. I personally prefer the P950 in terms of function and handling. 3000mm equivalent is really tough to handle hand-held, and the snap-back-for-tracking feature is too slow to be functional, particularly when combined with the sluggish autofocus performance. Still, for static subjects you can manage to locate at 3000mm, the lens pretty much does a solid Nikkor telephoto job. In a word, excellent. This just once again proves that Nikon knows optics as well as anyone. Too bad they sometimes fail to prove they know cameras all that well.
I really don't have a lot of issue with the image sensor, either, even though it's a small one (1/2.3"). I've spent enough time with the camera to know that I can massage a lot out of the raw files if I get everything else right. Heck, even the simplified functions and menus are livable.
Where the P1000 (and now P1100) fall down is in making 3000mm useful. Focus performance and finding/following the subject, to be specific. And nothing was done to improve that in the new model. Worse still, there's not a single thing that the marketing department can do to regenerate any interest in this camera, as there's not even a bit of new product grizzle for them to chew on. That said, Nikon Marketing took a big swing at it with the press release (title: "Reach for the Stars") but in the end this launch was a total miss. Zero new interest at dealers on a product most people had forgotten about for good reasons.
So let's dream about the perfect swing for a moment. Simply put EXPEED7 and phase detect on sensor into the package that already exists. As Nikon just showed with the Z50II and Zf, even with older, slower image sensors this makes a substantial and important difference (plus there was a far better "birds" to add to the camera ;~). Personally, I would have done that with the P950 instead, but Nikon is trying to claim the supersuperzoom crown, so sure, P1000 it is.
Staring at Pitches
Nikon truly left the compact market—and by that I mean the highly capable compact—just prior to launching the Z System. The Nikon J5 was arguably one of the better compacts Nikon had produced. Nikon management apparently looked at the waning Nikon 1 sales as a product failure, not the management failure it actually was.
Beyond just staring at the obvious problem and not doing anything different for seven years, management also mostly misread the market, believing that the need for a shirt pocket compact no longer existed. Another stare at a perfectly good pitch and doing nothing.
The J5 was a perfectly fine 20mp compact when it appeared in 2015. Its image quality level would still be relevant today, what with the EXPEED improvements it would have received. But Nikon had already stopped making new lenses for the Nikon 1 line, and that was apparent to anyone paying attention. Moreover, Nikon never really got the Nikon 1 lens set right in the first place: they took a couple of practice swings and then stood in the box doing not much of anything as the pitches passed them by.
The Z30 now pretty much takes the place of the J5, though at a bit of a size penalty. So it's clear that Nikon management understands that there might be something to swing at, but they still keep hesitating with their actual swing and claim they're swinging at a different pitch (apparently they see only a "creator" on the mound). I suspect a Z30II is coming, what that PC button being important to that pitcher. But we still have issues of not seeing the full pitch dynamics and then not swinging fully. Plus we're back in the no action realm in the lens bullpen, so even if Nikon gets the camera (swing) right, they still might not manage to win the game.
Lack of Team Play
I've written now for more than three decades that Nikon's number one problem is that they don't interact with their customers. They seem to think of themselves as just a bunch of engineers doing business-to-business things with other engineers. Hmm. The last reported financial numbers say something entirely different: 46% of their sales and 540% of their profit comes from just camera and lens consumers.
We camera buyers should feel like we're part of the team. Do you feel like part of the team? Getting Nikon Japan to recognize anything with their cameras that needs changing because of the way we use it is like looking for a dentist using only road signs in upper Mongolia. I'll give you a recent example: with the Z50II I finally helped get Nikon to make Focus point display > AF-C in-focus display default to On. This was after spending time trying to convince them that AF-C in-focus display should actually be built in (it's not the default on the Z9, Z8, Z6III, or Zf, where we finally got a function to even turn it on).
It shouldn't be that hard. Serious, core, influential Nikon users know exactly what does/doesn't work or needs fixing. That's because we're part of the team: we're actually on the field playing the game. Management seems to be up in the Owner's Box sipping sake and swapping investment suggestions.
Here's my wish: let me put together a group of nine players (pro users), bring them to Japan, and have them spend a day telling everyone at Nikon exactly where the problems really are. What we'd buy and what we'll ignore. How we actually play the game and why we're still missing some critical gear.
My local Philadelphia Eagles just won the Super Bowl. You don't get that far without a "team." Apparently the night prior to the game, they had a special team meeting. It wasn't the usual meeting with the coaches telling the players what they can/can't/should/shouldn't do. Instead, each of the veteran players got up and shared their views. By the time all the speechifying and rallying was done—apparently left tackle Jordan Mailata picked up the podium, shook it, and just yelled "One More!"—the reports are that the coaches and players actually left that meeting feeling more together as a team than ever, and you saw that in the first half of the game if you watched it.
When was the last time you saw a photographer and a camera company 100% on the same page like that?
Still Mac-ing It After 41 Years
Today I’ve updated my Recommended Macintosh Hardware article with information for the new MacBook Air and Mac Studio models introduced this month. As usual when I update that article, I do some minor additions, tweaks, and embellishments. This time I added a note about virtualizing older macOS on new Mac hardware, amongst other things.
But wait, there’s more!
As an accompaniment to the hardware article, I’ve now added a Recommended Macintosh Software article that goes through the macOS, suggested utilities, best productivity software, as well as the better photography software that I can recommend.
Now all that’s missing is a Recommended Macintosh Accessories article...
The View After CP+
Okay, so what did we learn from CP+? Given that it was the first major photography trade show of the year and on home court, it's worth spending a bit of time to try to comprehend what is and isn't going on. This year's CP+ had about 50,000 on-site visitors, over 300,000 online visitors, and featured well over a hundred exhibitors.
Camera Slowdown
Introductions: 3 meaningful (OM-3, S1RII, V1), 2 not-so-much (bf, P1100)
The slowdown in significant camera introductions continues, and even when we do get a new camera, it's often immediately met with a "we apologize for not being to produce enough to meet demand." I keep getting told that this is a supply chain problem coupled with caution by Tokyo, but I'm getting a little skeptical of that explanation without any supporting detail. We've already got far too many politicians, executives, and just-generally-rich dudes running around claiming things without presenting a shred of evidence. I'm looking for the camera company that can stand up and say what's really happening.
Sigma is the closest thing we have to that. Their disclosure that they can only make nine (!) of their new bf cameras a day is the way things should work. That's probably about 2500 cameras a year when all is said and done. They simply have limited machines that can carve that aluminum block into a camera shell, and they aren't fast. I suppose they could add more machines, but Sigma's acknowledgment that they aren't pursuing that course at the moment tells us everything we need to know: the bf (and fp) cameras are a hobby business for them; not integral to their growth and profitability. On the other hand, Sigma isn't openly discussing what's happening on the lens side of their business, where it appears that their hands may be being tied by Canon and Nikon.
Fujifilm, Nikon, and Sony all have pending cameras to launch. The fact that they didn't announce them on home turf where they'd get a lot of attention tells me that whatever is slowing the product development cycles isn't done yet. In Fujifilm's case, they'll wait until the upcoming Fujikina (next month). In Nikon's case, I'm pretty sure their next announcement is a few days either side of their year-end financial results report in early June. Sony's next camera announcement seems to have slipped twice, so I'm not sure when it will hit.
Unfortunately, new cameras tend to be made of unobtainium even when announced. The Canon Powershot V1 carries that to several degrees: not available outside of Asia; not available immediately; and probably in short supply when it does ship.
Firmware Not Quite Here Yet
Nikon was once again demonstrating things in their booth that actual camera owners can't get. Everyone remembers the Z9 that meowed when it took images (installable shutter sounds). Now we have the Zf playing Pong via the autofocus system. More interesting was that the Zf's in the Nikon booth had firmware that understood the new Flexible Picture Controls and connected to Nikon Imaging Cloud. I'm sure we'll get that at some point, but for now it's missing in action, and what we did get was new Z6III and Z8 firmware that have video feature updates centered around the new power zoom lens. Neither firmware for those cameras has Flexible Picture Control support nor connects to Nikon Imaging Cloud.
To me it feels like Nikon is getting out of sync with itself. It's unable to bring all cameras up to speed with Nikon Imaging Cloud, Flexible Picture Controls, and power zoom features. The this-camera-has-it-but-this-one-doesn't problem is now out of hand. The Zf in the booth, for instance, had Cycle AF-area mode as a configuration choice (Z6III still doesn't have it and needs it more).
Of course, I'm happy that Nikon is out of sync with itself. If they suddenly dropped Z50II, Zf, Z6III, Z8, and Z9 firmware updates that rationalized and equalized the feature sets, I'd be spending a lot of time updating books.
Meanwhile, the rumors were that firmware updates for the Canon R1 and R5 Mark II would show up for CP+. They did not.
Lenses, Lenses, Lenses
Introductions: 10 mainstream, about two dozen others
I was happy to see Nikon, Sigma, and Sony all introduce two new lenses each in the days prior to the show. Each continues to round out their extensive lineups in their own unique way, extending each line into new options. We all love options, though we get confused by them ;~).
I was less happy to see over 20 additional primes hit the market, and so many of them manual focus. I'll give Laowa props for continuing to introduce more interesting, not-done-before lenses, but 7Artisans and Viltrox seem stuck on "we can't find a prime spec between 20 and 100mm we don't want to produce." I will say this, though: note that the L-mount is getting traction in some of those Chinese optic vendors. The only reason I can think that would be the case is that there's a Chinese L-mount camera coming (DJI already is an official L-mount supporter).
But the bigger disappointment at CP+ was the continued "announce but don't disclose" problem we now have coming out of Asia. You'll note on my sansmirror.com CP+ page that there's a lot of non-linked items. That's because "yes we announced it, here's our press release and you can see a prototype over in that case," but no actual specific information other than focal length and aperture is provided. Size, weight, filter size, optical design, price, and actual release date now seem to be optional for lens announcements. To me, that shows an insecurity from the lens companies; they believe they need announcements now so that they look more credible. Sorry, it's making you look less credible ;~).
Then we have Zeiss, which seems to have no idea what it's doing. The world doesn't need a 50mm f/1.4 ML and 85mm f/1.4 ML Otus manual focus lens, even at greatly reduced prices (from previous Otus lenses). Sonyrumors was exasperated when no one used their "buy now" links for the new lenses, which sort of proves my point. Why they left the market in 2019 and have now returned is 100% unclear (I'll have more to say about that soon). I'm sure Cosina's happy (they're the actual manufacturer), but is anyone else?
Positive Vibes
In general, the mood in Tokyo at the moment seems to be upbeat. Sales were up in 2024 and higher than the initial forecast (more on that below). Though economic clouds are building on the horizon—tariffs, recession, et.al.—the Japanese and Chinese companies seem positive about the future of photography.
Everyone was pointing to one or another gain they made in the past year, plus highlighting things they were extremely proud of. The expo was generally upbeat and busy.
CP+ and others do a lot of surveying of participants, so I thought I'd share a few snippets from all those surveys:
- 65.4% of those at the event and online say that they "take photos as a hobby." The professional and professional adjacent responses hit 15.7%.
- 45.4% of those at the event and online say that they "rarely take videos." If my memory serves me, this is down from the last time CP+ asked that question.
- The "most used camera" is now mirrorless (at 52.7%) followed by DSLR (at 23.5%). Smartphones are in third at 17.9%.
- 56.2% view photos "mainly on smartphone/tablet". Gee, I wonder how they get there? ;~)
Meanwhile, CIPA uses CP+ to publish their annual report and future outlook. Total camera shipments in 2024 went up 10%, with mirrorless up 16.1% and DSLRs down 14.4%. Here's the kicker: China shipments were up 24.5%, while Europe lagged at a 3.1% increase. Americas was in between at up 7.3%.
To me, the eyebrow raiser was that lenses were only up 7% overall, which means that the attachment rate—lenses sold per camera—went down. I have to wonder if the Chinese are eroding lens sales now, as Japan-based CIPA doesn't count non-member shipments.
So what is CIPA predicting for 2025? This:
- Overall camera shipments will be up 1.1%.
- Interchangeable lens camera shipments will be up 1%.
- Lens shipments will be up 2.9%.
Which probably makes you wonder what CIPA predicted for 2024 back at CP+ 2023:
- Overall camera shipments down 4% (actual: up 10%).
- Overall interchangeable lens camera shipments down 1.8% (actual: up 10.2%).
- Overall lens shipments down 0.7% (actual: up 7%).
So, last year the camera companies—who all contribute their views to the yearly CIPA forecast—were pessimistic and then that turned out to be wrong. That, by the way, is one of the reasons why there was a lot of out-of-stock happening in 2024, particularly early in the year: the CIPA estimates are based upon Japanese companies actual production forecasts. At the time of last year's CP+, everyone had scaled back their production estimates. Given that the companies are mostly pessimistic again this year, if demand continues as in 2024, we're going to have more shortages.
However, we're now in a different economic environment. The likelihood of a trade war and a recession have been raised dramatically, and neither of those would be good for camera and lens sales. Here in the US, most people don't realize that the government is the largest employer, and if you fire even 5% of the government staffing plus remove a similar number of illegal immigrants, that is a huge economic drag on the economy, large enough to be felt by everyone. Most macroeconomic models are now flashing red.
Curiously, big business CEOs seem to be quietly backing what's happening in the US, mostly because they believe that their regulatory constrictions will be loosened. However, the real problem is going to be consumer demand. With fewer consumers (even illegal migrants consume basic things) and fewer people working, demand will absolutely go down. The Fed just reversed their projection of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 to a decline, which is a clear sign that the demand curve may already be down.
So while the vibes were briefly positive in Yokohama last week, the reality is that camera makers have a lot to contend with this coming year, at least here in the US, and by extension, Europe (the two together are about half of the camera market). Their go-to response will be to micromanage where products go, which likely means China and the home market get more units, plus large potential markets such as India will look more inviting.
We'll see how it plays out. I will say that predicting anything for the coming year is a giant game of uncertainty. Let's hope that next year's CP+ will be another one of positivity, but that's not my current bet.
The Grinch Sent Me Email
Update: The Grinch and I have been emailing back and forth after I posted this email. Our cordial conversation would make a good article all by itself, as it speaks to something the camera companies really need to figure out if they want to grow the photography market.
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"As the move to mirrorless requires new lenses , I feel extorted by Japan Camera Corp.
Add to this the huge price for a piece that mainly consists cheap plastics.
Except for the electronic silent shutter , mirrorless cameras don't offer any advantages.They are just as unpocketable as Dslrs.
Electronic displays on cameras feel bad compared to optical viewfinders.
No matter how much you trade journalists trump it up , we consumers wish the mirrorless to go bankrupt."
Message exactly as received via email; no editing.
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Oh dear, someone had a bad day. I often don't know how (or whether I even should) respond to such emails.
I need to point out that I don't know exactly what camera he is thinking of that could possibly fulfill his antiquarian demands. It would have to (1) not require new lenses, (2) be made entirely of metal (heavy!), (3) have an optical viewfinder, and (4) fit in a pocket. Oh, and it probably also has to be inexpensive to avoid any "extortion."
Has any interchangeable lens camera ever met that product definition? The closest I can come to anything recent that might even begin to please this person might be a Fujifilm X100VI, only that camera has a fixed lens and is also unobtainium at the moment. Not to mention the fact that it's expensive for what it is.
Obviously, if enough people share this view of the camera market, the camera companies are in deep trouble. But the thing is, if this writer's demands were to be met by the camera companies, the companies would be in even bigger trouble, because basically once customers have bought an inexpensive-old-lens-metal-pocket beast, why would that group buy anything else?
Change is never without downsides. Change also won't continue happening if there aren't significant upsides for both producer and user. So you have to evaluate any major change (e.g. DSLR to mirrorless) or even minor change (e.g. Z6 to Z6II) in terms of how the downside and upside balance. Too much downside and not enough upside means that potential buyers sit things out. Lots of upside with little downside, and the camera maker will have a hit on their hands. What I find interesting is how many more people are fighting against all change now and believe that there is some nirvana that will happen in a completely static market.
Everything you see around you—roads, autos, computers, wireless communications, local stores, and way too much more to list here—came about because our predecessors all dreamed, planned, then got together and made then distributed new things. Things that were meaningfully better than what came before.
When I started sansmirror.com back in 2009 (!) I got a huge pushback from sated DSLR users who felt that they didn't need anything that mirrorless cameras provided. What's interesting today is that the primary response I get from someone who finally transitioned from DSLR to mirrorless is that they now clearly see the benefits. Such as autofocus anywhere in the frame, seeing not just the exposure but the additional rendering elements (white balance, profiles, etc.) as you compose, pre-release capture capabilities, and much more. The primary drawback? You had to buy into a new system, with an emphasis on the word "buy".
As a sports and wildlife photographer, I'd even argue that the other usually complained about attribute of mirrorless—that it has an electronic and not optical viewfinder—is actually another benefit. True, early mirrorless cameras had pretty terrible, distracting EVFs. Today, however, I find that I can compose in situations where an optical viewfinder would have me guessing, without any real other drawback (a DSLR wouldn't even focus in those low-light situations). For example, outside of the daylight hours in Africa: since I'm seeing what the camera is going to record rather than the completely dark optical view, I can actually frame. Heck, in some cases, I can't even see the subject clearly without the camera. Since so much of animal behavior happens in these edge-of-day situations, mirrorless opens up new possibilities for me.
In closing, let me take on the commenter's claims individually:
- "...the move to mirrorless requires new lenses" — No, it doesn't. It requires a mount adapter, sometimes bundled free with a mirrorless camera. Of course, most of us have discovered that the newer mirrorless lenses are simply better, because the change in mount and and simpler alignment means that quality and consistency is better with a mirrorless lens. Still, you don't have to use one. (Yes, that's true for OMDS and Sony users, as well, though their adapters are now long forgotten.)
- "...huge price" — Most price complaints ignore inflation. The Nikon 50mm f/1.4G introduced in 2008 was US$485 then. Adjusted for inflation, that would currently be US$710. Nikon just introduced the 50mm f/1.4 for the Z-mount at what price? US$499. Oops.
- "...for a piece that mainly consists cheap plastics" — Two problems here. First is the use of the word "cheap." That's a total made up notion by the writer, as they have no idea how inexpensive or expensive the components used in modern gear are. The bigger issue is the oft-repeated myth that metal is better than polycarbonate. For some things yes, for other things no. Indeed, if you were to dissect that 50mm f/1.4 for the Z-mount I just referred to, you'll see that the polycarbonate outside is there to protect a metal frame inside. Why? Because when you drop metal and it hits something it distorts and doesn't return to form, which would make the lens a complete teardown to fix. When you drop polycarbonate, it either bounces back to form or breaks. In the case of a break, that level of fall pretty much would have totaled a metal lens, but really only requires outer shell replacement for most modern lens designs.
- "Except for the electronic silent shutter , mirrorless cameras don't offer any advantages." — Not even close to correct. I've already alluded to some, but there are plenty more. One really big advantage is that manufacturing alignments are easier to get right with mirrorless, so the actual lens mount and image sensor tend to be more precisely positioned, an important attribute as pixel counts go up. But there are plenty of other advantages (again, too numerous to list here).
- "They are just as unpocketable as Dslrs." — I'm not sure DSLRs were ever contemplated to be pocketable; nor were film SLRs. However, some mirrorless cameras have been (at least jacket pocketable). So just on the premise alone, the writer's argument is incorrect. Apparently the writer also doesn't want a high-capability, interchangeable lens camera, but rather something he can just carry in his pocket. Well, there's always smartphones, but considering how anti-tech his sentiments seem to be, I'm sure he would have plenty of reasons to avoid using one.
- "Electronic displays on cameras feel bad compared to optical viewfinders." — The odd thing here is the use of the word "feel." Feel isn’t really an optical characteristic. As I noted earlier, many early mirrorless cameras had EVFs that were lacking in some way. Current state-of-the-art mirrorless cameras have some pretty incredible viewfinders, though. The Z6III's EVF is truly remarkable when you're photographing in HEIF or producing N-Log video. I could also point out that DSLR viewfinders had plenty of issues: alignment, lack of camera information that could be clearly seen, adjustments for scene brightness that made manual focusing unreliable, and more.
- "No matter how much you trade journalists trump it up..." Ah, the oblique insult. At least I suspect the writer believes that "trade journalist" is a derogatory. Otherwise there's no reason to put the word "trade" in front of "journalist." I've gotten very used to being insulted, from the subtle to some very nasty responses. It started back in 1994 when I first started supporting Nikon cameras on the Internet and has continued with my Internet presence through today. Yes, I take strong, clear stands. But I also will self-correct if it becomes clear I'm wrong. Still, I have to wonder why some people even bother reading my work, let alone responding to it (the writer in question has been reading me for some time, as he pops off with a negative email regarding one of my articles every now and then; he probably already has his email client open again ;~). If you don't accept, believe, or trust what I write, aren't you wasting your time reading it?
- "...we consumers wish the mirrorless to go bankrupt." — See the irony there? He's a consumer who doesn't want to consume. Moreover, he is overstating his case by using the plural, as though he represents everyone. He clearly doesn't, since 4.76 million folk bought a mirrorless camera in 2023, and 2024 had already matched that number by October.
The email I'm responding to with this article appears to be from a neophobe ("a person who dislikes or fears anything new"). He's certainly entitled to be one. What I'm puzzled about, however, is why is he using a computer to read a Web site about a technology-driven product and using a modern communication form (email) to express his neophobia. He's clearly not going to convince me (a neophile) to change what I write, so I just have to take this as more of the angry acting out that seems to be one of the clear consequences of the anonymous Internet. (I'll repeat: I was not for an anonymous Internet when those discussions were happening.)
Sadly, by reaching out to me with all these what I consider to be non-supportable gripes, it just reminds me I have to do an even better job of presenting the case for the products he seems to want to go away.
CP+ Week (non-mirrorless)
This is the week where the biggest announcements centered around the big Japanese consumer photography show, CP+, will get made. I've had a page up on sansmirror detailing the announcements so far, and it will continue to update it as each new announcement is made, but we're also getting a few products that don't fall into the mirrorless category, so I'll cover them here.
February 19th. The big non-mirrorless news so far is the curiously low-key announcement of the Canon Powershot V1. Yes, that camera is only going to be available in Asia (at least for awhile), but even in Asia the announcement was relatively low key.

The irony is that the V1 is a power shot directly at the Sony vlogging machine (ZV-1F, ZV-E10, maybe even FX30). Clearly, Canon is feeling that they need to throw everything into their competition with Sony now. The V1 has a brand new dual-pixel 22mp image sensor that's virtually equal to the m4/3 size in area (225mm2), but without the 4:3 aspect ratio. 4K/30P is downsampled, 4K/60P is done from a pixel-to-pixel 1.4x crop. Canon Log3 is supported, with 10-bit capture.
As you'd expect from a vlogging-style camera, it relies upon a fully articulating 1.04m dot Rear LCD touchscreen (no EVF) and has both headphone and mic sockets, as well as an audio connector built into the hot shoe. Interestingly, the V1 also has a built-in cooling fan so that it can be a continuous vlogger (or streamer, as UAV/UAC is built in). While the V1 is designed to be handled like a vlogger, it is capable of 18.7mp (5750 x 3840) stills at up to 15 fps mechanical shutter, 30 fps electronic.
Up front we have a retractable-for-transport 16-50mm (equivalent) f/2.8-4.5 5EV stabilized lens that can focus to 2" (0.05m) backed by a 3EV ND filter. Overall, the V1 is about the same size as the old M100/M200 type cameras and weighs 426g. Price is under US$1000. But the camera will only be available initially in China, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. And that apparently won't happen until April. I'm told that the V1 will eventually be announced worldwide, though.
Also ironically, Nikon had something similar in mind back in 2016 when they announced and then unannounced the DL18-50 (though that was with a 1" image sensor). Nikon didn't believe me when I said a true wide angle compact would sell. Apparently now that the camera companies are listening to "influencers", going wide with the zoom turns out to be almost necessary. If the V1 sells in quantity, I'll consider myself vindicated. Again.
I still have to wonder, though, if the camera makers are mostly missing the point. These days I do vlogging chores with a DJI Osmo Pocket 3 because it is designed to purpose really well, and the smartphone connection works fast and reliably. A 30 fps still camera with a reasonably big sensor in a (large) pocketable camera is interesting, but as far as I can tell, the V1 isn't truly optimized for still use, so it's not going to dislodge others easily. (Disclosure: I have reviews of the Leica D-Lux8 and Fujifilm X100VI coming soon, but I'm still trying to clear a lot of other things off my plate first. 11 lens reviews. Another book. Web site designs. Remodel the office. Oh my.)
Interesting Things Written on the Internet (Volume 26)
"I doubt we'll see this sensor in any future model..." —multiple comments on Canon's announcement of a 410mp image sensor
By way of explanation, 410mp is 24K video, or 24,592 x 16,704 pixels.
That specific image sensor? No, we're not likely to see it in an upcoming Canon camera. The announcement itself is coordinated with SPIE Photonics West (a conference for optics and photonics work), and is really speaking to two things: Canon is not only fully capable of smartphone level photosite sizing, but more importantly, pulling immense amount of information off the image sensor quickly. In this case, that 410mp sensor can achieve 24K video at 8 fps, or 12K video at 24 fps.
However, don't rule out really high pixel counts. More sampling over the same area opens up many options. As an engineer friend pointed out in response to something I wrote earlier, at about 4x the pixel density you not only can improve the phase detect focus performance, but you also start to be able to develop a useful depth map. You're still essentially at the same final pixel count, dynamic range, and noise-at-standard-output size, but you have more information to do more things. I've written it for a couple of decades now: I'm always taking more sampling, all else equal.
What's really happening at Canon is this: they have prototype chips that allow them to investigate what they might be able to achieve with more sampling. When they figure out what that is and it imparts a tangible user benefit, you can bloody well bet that Canon will have a camera with a megapixel monster inside.
"Your AI edits may interact with each other and require updating" —post by Greg Benz
You bet. Moreover, this is a variation on the "in what order should I do things in processing raw files" question that has been around since the beginning. I've been reticent to write much about that because it keeps changing as new tools and workflow appears. I have enough things I need to update that don't get updated fast enough than to put a "raw workflow order" article on the site ;~).
However, Greg has done some of my work for me. I invite you to take a look at his AI order article and video, as it explains at least a subset of that fairly concisely. Short version: if you're going to use AI Denoise, do it first. Then learn the order of the other AI tools and do them in order.
"OM [Digital Solutions] told us that the OM-3 is effectively the replacement for the much-loved Olympus Pen-F...explaining it was impossible for them to make the Pen-F design fully weatherproof." — Photographyblog
I find that statement to be incredible. This would effectively be saying that creating an off-set viewfinder camera makes it impossible to weatherproof, while a centered viewfinder is. Sounds like a made-up-on-the-spottism explanation, to me.
I mean, I get it: OMDS decided that their more retro looking camera would be SLR design, not rangefinder design. Not that there's all that much difference between the two in actuality, other than where the viewfinder sits and whether you have a viewfinder hump or not. Other than that, I see no functional differences between the Pen-F design/controls and the OM-3 design/controls. So in that respect, I suppose, OMDS could indeed claim "we did the OM-3 rather than a Pen-F II because we liked that idea better." Both ideas play off older Olympus designs—particularly in panda cladding—and both feature the flat soap-bar-in-leather front instead of a real hand grip.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest why OMDS chose OM-3 instead of Pen-F II: the SLR-type design is about a half inch wider than the rangefinder design. It's highly likely that when someone disassembles an OM-3 you'll find that OMDS didn't really redesign the OM-1 Mark II digital board, and it needed a wider area.
Frankly, I'd say that we haven't yet seen OMDS design a new camera since taking over from Olympus. We've seen tweaks and refits of existing designs, but nothing particularly new from them. I'll also double down on my claim that Olympus/OMDS has missed a significant opportunity, a m4/3 compact camera to take on Ricoh's GR and Fujifilm's X100. And a Tough m4/3, too. Those have been clear opportunities to expand their volume and up their average selling price while still reusing the most expensive parts (m4/3 image sensor and TruePic processor). Total miss on Olympus/OMDS's part. Instead we get almost an identical camera in a different body at (currently) the same price.
The Software Landscape Continues to Morph
Adobe is now on new higher pricing for the Photography Plan, and it wasn't difficult to predict that others would see that as a reason to follow.
Let's start with Adobe. The Photography Plan that includes Lightroom and Photoshop is now US$20/month, though there's currently a discount for the first six months of US$5/mo. You do get 1TB of cloud storage now, a significant increase from the old 20GB if that's important to you (it may be if you use Lightroom instead of Lightroom Classic while traveling).
You can also get a Lightroom only (all versions) plan from Adobe for US$12/month, also with 1TB of cloud storage.
Adobe users of the original plan that opted to pay annually were grandfathered for this year at the old US$10/month price, but they still only have 20GB of cloud storage.
So if you're an Adobe user, you either enrolled long term to keep your old Photography Plan price or are paying (1) 20% more but no longer have access to Photoshop or (2) double the old price, but with more cloud storage.
I know my position on this is controversial to some. Unlike some vendors, Adobe has shown that they're using the SaaS (software as a service) fees to continue to do extensive and fairly frequent feature and performance benefits. Today's Photoshop is so much better than the original Photoshop CC it's difficult to describe (and would take me a lot of writing to do justice to). So far I'm pleased with how they've treated those of us who decided to come along for the SaaS journey from the beginning. US$120 to stay at the forefront of image editing software seems reasonable to me.
I will also say this: I've been poking around my image archives and using the current Photoshop on images I took just after the turn of the century. Things like Super Resolution and the newer imaging engines, et.al., have significantly improved what I can get out of all those now 20+ year-old raw files. I think that's something that's worth a subscription: Adobe has been making my old images better.
Moving on to Capture One. The new there is two-fold: subscriptions are about to rise 6%. Billed monthly, the full (mobile and desktop) version is US$34/month, the desktop only version is US$24/month. In my mind, that's more money for less product (than Adobe) now. I didn't see a lot of feature/performance improvements that justified the high price, so much so that I dropped my subscription late last year with version 22. Your mileage may vary (Capture One is popular in studio settings and for certain cameras).
Meanwhile, Capture One has a Valentine's Day present for its user base: on February 14th the community support forum will be closed. It's unclear what motivated this decision, but it's likely an attempt to reduce costs.
Up in Oregon, On1 Photo RAW 2025.1 is on sale at US$50 for the perpetual license (though note that you'll only get the .1 minor updates, not any future major updates). They have more expensive plans that include mobile and cloud computing and major updates via subscription, but I suspect a lot of their attraction to the user base right now is the potential low one-time cost. If you're not constantly switching/upgrading cameras and are happy with the current feature set, the sale price through February 13th seems appealing.
What I've noted, though, is that many On1 Photo RAW users are essentially "subscribing." By that I mean that they buy a perpetual license and then upgrade every year when a new offer is presented. If you're in that category, On1 starts to become something more like a US$5/month option, at least at the base level. I suppose now that I'm not paying for Capture One I'll have to take another look at On1 (disclosure: I sometimes use their Effects plug-in).
I have this suspicion that we're entering a difficult period for the software companies. With camera introductions significantly down, and the fact that if you buy a high-end camera you're not likely update any time soon so don't need the "new version that understands your new raw files", I think more people are going to be looking at getting off the subscription bandwagon than on.
If, as I predict, that we're in a world now where we have maybe 6m ILC sales a year without any significant further growth, I find it difficult to believe that all the software we have today will survive for long.
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