I've written before that things have (and will continue) to slow down in terms of new gear announcements. All of the camera companies are on a more modest release schedule than they were pre-pandemic, and continued supply chain issues coupled with the low overall volume of the camera market has caused most companies to slow their product proliferation. Canon might be an exception to this, primarily because they wouldn't survive without volume; their whole strategy is based upon selling 50% of the 8m or so camera units made each year.
Coupled with the above are two other issues. First, as camera makers pushed their products higher up in the market, the consumer stopped being in the mood to buy a new one every couple of years. But now we also have the tariff problem, which is causing yet another intersecting problem. For instance, Fujifilm produces the X100VI, X-M5, and GFX100RF in China. It's impossible for them to import them into the US given the 145% tariff. If someone was still really in the market for a those cameras and can't get those Fujifilm models, they'll buy something else. And then once they've paid top money for something else, it's doubtful that when Fujifilm can once again import those models into the US that the same customer would be interested in opening their pocket book again.
I identified sampling, leaking, and switching as market factors over a decade ago when we started the DSLR to mirrorless changeover. I'm now identifying another factor: satiation.
We've already seen this a bit on the Nikon side, where D850 owners simply don't see the value in making the transition to mirrorless. They already have a great camera that they paid a lot of money for—arguably the best all-around DSLR ever made—and they don't see a clear benefit to spending a greater amount of money to get something mirrorless today, particularly if they need to change their lens set. D500 owners tend to think this way, too (another best-ever camera, this time APS-C).
Despite my having documented over 120 feature requests that Z9 generation owners would like to see in their cameras, I'd be the first one to admit that I haven't been able to fully take advantage of all the things that are already built into my Z9, and I'm a high practitioner who makes use of advanced features and top-end performance. At 73 years of age, I can easily say that the Z9 Generation cameras I own, coupled with a solid Z-mount lens set, are enough satiation that I don't really need anything else before I eventually age to the point where I can no longer practice photography.
That's true of quite a few of the interchangeable lens camera crowd that's been buying Canon R1/3/5/6/7, Nikon Z6/7/8/9, and the various Sony A's: they're (mostly) an older audience and enjoy extended features and performance, but they're not fully using what they already have. Moreover, exactly what feature or performance aspect are they really missing? (Since I asked the question, I'll answer it: they'd love to escape much in the way of post processing. So building AI noise reduction into the camera would intrigue me.)
The problem with the leaking and switching that started in the early teens was that individual companies saw declines in sales if they were the ones the users were moving away from. Both Canon and Nikon were impacted by this as people discovered first m4/3 but especially Sony Alpha mirrorless. Nikon lost market share, and Canon had to use sales, quick temporary responses, and marketing to try to keep their share from eroding as well. Fujifilm and Sony benefited.
The problem with satiation is that everyone will see begin to see declining sales. The best marketing move against that is probably the upsell upgrade. In other words, you own a R6 or Z6 model, but for your next upgrade buy an R5+ or Z8+. Of course, this really just postpones satiation, and pushes what the person paid to an even higher level, which increases the eventual satiation.
Nikon's last four new cameras all are basically attempts to move closet gear owners into the new era. In other words, the D70 to D750 crowd, who never moved into mirrorless, partly because they don't use their cameras all that much and their gear lives mostly in a closet. The Zf is trying to re-engage the Df users, the Z50II is trying to re-engage the D7xxx users, the Z5II/Z6III are trying to re-engage the D750 users (and a few Z5/Z6/Z6II owners, as well). If successful, I'd say that the likelihood is that those users will become satiated if they make that move. All four of those new Nikon mirrorless cameras are really complete, high executing products.
The prospect of higher prices due to tariffs only adds to the problem. The high end products being pushed get even higher in price. If you're outside the US and think that the tariff war probably won't impact you, think again. Short term you might see better pricing because the camera companies are going to see sales in about a quarter of the camera-buying world dry up and they need to move volume, which means sales. Moreover, the likelihood of a large economic downturn is very high now, which will also put pricing pressure on companies. But this wasn't called a tariff war for nothing. The impacts on the supply chain are already being felt, and all that's happened so far is one person shot their wad and got a wad fired back in response. While I believe Trump is a poser—he makes huge claims and sets goals that he never really delivers on (how's that wall paid for by Mexico coming?)—he's triggered a massive disruption that's going to have businesses shaking in aftershocks as everything starts to get renegotiated, reconfigured, and reorganized.
If you're satiated, as I sort of am, you're just going to go out and use the gear you've got. Double that if you're also being hit economically. I don't remember a time in the last thirty years—which includes terrorism, a great recession, a pandemic, and more—when the behind the scenes chatter as I talk with others in the industry (press, stores, pros, camera companies) has been so questioning about what will happen as a result.
You might be surprised after all the above to hear this optimistic conclusion: some form of the camera industry will survive, and potentially thrive. It's really a Darwinian cycle we're facing. The healthy, strong, and inventive will carry on by evolving to the new and changing conditions. The unhealthy, weak, and those that don't act at all may die off.
