Based upon future anticipated shipping patterns (cargo vessels and ports have to plan in advance, and much of that data is publicly available), the real crunch from the China tariffs probably begins some time in May. Even if the trade war were concluded today, there would likely be a period of a few weeks starting in May where Asian imports no longer meet US orders. Moreover, it would be expensive to try to get through such a cargo vessel lull by using air transport temporarily, should an importer decide they absolutely need product.
So what's that mean for photographic gear?
Probably more than most people think. That's because buying photographic gear is, for most people, a discretionary purchase. You're more likely to buy in times when disposable income is plentiful, less likely when you're penny pinching.
The problem starts with cargo ships. Because no one wants to pay 145% tariffs unless they absolutely have to, a lot of cargo originally destined for the US will never leave an Asian port. Three weeks later, the US West Coast ports suddenly are operating at much lower levels (current Long Beach estimates are for a 25% year-to-year decline in May). This leads to temporary employment cuts at the ports, but also leads to less need for further domestic shipping (i.e. trucking and rail). Which leads to more temporary employment cuts. Meanwhile, no new product shows up at retailers, leading to eventual product shortages and further temporary employment cuts.
Employment cuts lead to less discretionary income and less spending in the overall economy, which starts a slow downward spiral where future orders are lowered, thus future cargo ships don't get loaded in SE Asia for the US, and on and on.
When I made the statement about the difference between ignorance and stupidity when I first wrote about the tariffs, this is part of what I was referring to: we know the likely outcomes of engaging in an all-out tariff war. We've already seen Wall Street gyrating as it tries to figure out how this war will play out. Particularly given that the current administration keeps putting contradictory policies into and out of place.
June is going to be the start of a very difficult time for camera gear here in the US if this trade war goes on much longer. Some products won't be available, others will have higher prices, dealers will be floundering trying to get their inventory and cash into alignment, and camera companies will be staring at an overall down year for unit volume and sales (the rest of the world can't make up for any substantial decline in the US market, particularly since any recession in the US would spread Internationally). I've already pointed out to Nikon Z System users that if they want certain lenses made in China that they're in stock now but might not be in the very near future. If one of those sixteen lenses was on your summer buying radar, you're about to see the radar go blank.
Thing is, June is historically a high volume month for camera gear, as people consider what they'll be taking on vacation travel with them for the summer. Moreover, Father's Day and graduation presents also tend to play a large part in late spring sales. I'm fearful that this year will be very different than previous years. Particularly for US camera dealers, who are the canary in the coal mine.
Why do I say that? Well, you can simply continue using what you have if you don't buy anything new. It won't kill your photography. The camera makers, meanwhile, will micromanage where their production goes temporarily, which means they'll increase export to countries other the US. It's your brick and mortar camera dealer that's in the vulnerable position. If you rely on a local dealer, now is the time to make sure you're really supporting them, otherwise they might go away.
There will be no winner in this war. Only a clear loser, and long term that would be you, the consumer (and that's regardless of where you live).
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Currently anticipated impacts here in the US:
- Canon — Increasing list prices soon, fewer Instant Rebates until then.
- Fujifilm — No new imports of X-M5, X100VI, and GFX100RF into the US for the time being.
- Nikon — Cancelled most Instant Rebates (effectively a price increase) while pondering what to do next.
- Sony — Notified dealers of multiple pricing changes, some of which were changes to changes, in the past week.
- Overall — I'm aware of one camera that won't be initially introduced in the US, and two more that are currently going to get a delay.
