Okay, so what did we learn from CP+? Given that it was the first major photography trade show of the year and on home court, it's worth spending a bit of time to try to comprehend what is and isn't going on. This year's CP+ had about 50,000 on-site visitors, over 300,000 online visitors, and featured well over a hundred exhibitors.
Camera Slowdown
Introductions: 3 meaningful (OM-3, S1RII, V1), 2 not-so-much (bf, P1100)
The slowdown in significant camera introductions continues, and even when we do get a new camera, it's often immediately met with a "we apologize for not being to produce enough to meet demand." I keep getting told that this is a supply chain problem coupled with caution by Tokyo, but I'm getting a little skeptical of that explanation without any supporting detail. We've already got far too many politicians, executives, and just-generally-rich dudes running around claiming things without presenting a shred of evidence. I'm looking for the camera company that can stand up and say what's really happening.
Sigma is the closest thing we have to that. Their disclosure that they can only make nine (!) of their new bf cameras a day is the way things should work. That's probably about 2500 cameras a year when all is said and done. They simply have limited machines that can carve that aluminum block into a camera shell, and they aren't fast. I suppose they could add more machines, but Sigma's acknowledgment that they aren't pursuing that course at the moment tells us everything we need to know: the bf (and fp) cameras are a hobby business for them; not integral to their growth and profitability. On the other hand, Sigma isn't openly discussing what's happening on the lens side of their business, where it appears that their hands may be being tied by Canon and Nikon.
Fujifilm, Nikon, and Sony all have pending cameras to launch. The fact that they didn't announce them on home turf where they'd get a lot of attention tells me that whatever is slowing the product development cycles isn't done yet. In Fujifilm's case, they'll wait until the upcoming Fujikina (next month). In Nikon's case, I'm pretty sure their next announcement is a few days either side of their year-end financial results report in early June. Sony's next camera announcement seems to have slipped twice, so I'm not sure when it will hit.
Unfortunately, new cameras tend to be made of unobtainium even when announced. The Canon Powershot V1 carries that to several degrees: not available outside of Asia; not available immediately; and probably in short supply when it does ship.
Firmware Not Quite Here Yet
Nikon was once again demonstrating things in their booth that actual camera owners can't get. Everyone remembers the Z9 that meowed when it took images (installable shutter sounds). Now we have the Zf playing Pong via the autofocus system. More interesting was that the Zf's in the Nikon booth had firmware that understood the new Flexible Picture Controls and connected to Nikon Imaging Cloud. I'm sure we'll get that at some point, but for now it's missing in action, and what we did get was new Z6III and Z8 firmware that have video feature updates centered around the new power zoom lens. Neither firmware for those cameras has Flexible Picture Control support nor connects to Nikon Imaging Cloud.
To me it feels like Nikon is getting out of sync with itself. It's unable to bring all cameras up to speed with Nikon Imaging Cloud, Flexible Picture Controls, and power zoom features. The this-camera-has-it-but-this-one-doesn't problem is now out of hand. The Zf in the booth, for instance, had Cycle AF-area mode as a configuration choice (Z6III still doesn't have it and needs it more).
Of course, I'm happy that Nikon is out of sync with itself. If they suddenly dropped Z50II, Zf, Z6III, Z8, and Z9 firmware updates that rationalized and equalized the feature sets, I'd be spending a lot of time updating books.
Meanwhile, the rumors were that firmware updates for the Canon R1 and R5 Mark II would show up for CP+. They did not.
Lenses, Lenses, Lenses
Introductions: 10 mainstream, about two dozen others
I was happy to see Nikon, Sigma, and Sony all introduce two new lenses each in the days prior to the show. Each continues to round out their extensive lineups in their own unique way, extending each line into new options. We all love options, though we get confused by them ;~).
I was less happy to see over 20 additional primes hit the market, and so many of them manual focus. I'll give Laowa props for continuing to introduce more interesting, not-done-before lenses, but 7Artisans and Viltrox seem stuck on "we can't find a prime spec between 20 and 100mm we don't want to produce." I will say this, though: note that the L-mount is getting traction in some of those Chinese optic vendors. The only reason I can think that would be the case is that there's a Chinese L-mount camera coming (DJI already is an official L-mount supporter).
But the bigger disappointment at CP+ was the continued "announce but don't disclose" problem we now have coming out of Asia. You'll note on my sansmirror.com CP+ page that there's a lot of non-linked items. That's because "yes we announced it, here's our press release and you can see a prototype over in that case," but no actual specific information other than focal length and aperture is provided. Size, weight, filter size, optical design, price, and actual release date now seem to be optional for lens announcements. To me, that shows an insecurity from the lens companies; they believe they need announcements now so that they look more credible. Sorry, it's making you look less credible ;~).
Then we have Zeiss, which seems to have no idea what it's doing. The world doesn't need a 50mm f/1.4 ML and 85mm f/1.4 ML Otus manual focus lens, even at greatly reduced prices (from previous Otus lenses). Sonyrumors was exasperated when no one used their "buy now" links for the new lenses, which sort of proves my point. Why they left the market in 2019 and have now returned is 100% unclear (I'll have more to say about that soon). I'm sure Cosina's happy (they're the actual manufacturer), but is anyone else?
Positive Vibes
In general, the mood in Tokyo at the moment seems to be upbeat. Sales were up in 2024 and higher than the initial forecast (more on that below). Though economic clouds are building on the horizon—tariffs, recession, et.al.—the Japanese and Chinese companies seem positive about the future of photography.
Everyone was pointing to one or another gain they made in the past year, plus highlighting things they were extremely proud of. The expo was generally upbeat and busy.
CP+ and others do a lot of surveying of participants, so I thought I'd share a few snippets from all those surveys:
- 65.4% of those at the event and online say that they "take photos as a hobby." The professional and professional adjacent responses hit 15.7%.
- 45.4% of those at the event and online say that they "rarely take videos." If my memory serves me, this is down from the last time CP+ asked that question.
- The "most used camera" is now mirrorless (at 52.7%) followed by DSLR (at 23.5%). Smartphones are in third at 17.9%.
- 56.2% view photos "mainly on smartphone/tablet". Gee, I wonder how they get there? ;~)
Meanwhile, CIPA uses CP+ to publish their annual report and future outlook. Total camera shipments in 2024 went up 10%, with mirrorless up 16.1% and DSLRs down 14.4%. Here's the kicker: China shipments were up 24.5%, while Europe lagged at a 3.1% increase. Americas was in between at up 7.3%.
To me, the eyebrow raiser was that lenses were only up 7% overall, which means that the attachment rate—lenses sold per camera—went down. I have to wonder if the Chinese are eroding lens sales now, as Japan-based CIPA doesn't count non-member shipments.
So what is CIPA predicting for 2025? This:
- Overall camera shipments will be up 1.1%.
- Interchangeable lens camera shipments will be up 1%.
- Lens shipments will be up 2.9%.
Which probably makes you wonder what CIPA predicted for 2024 back at CP+ 2023:
- Overall camera shipments down 4% (actual: up 10%).
- Overall interchangeable lens camera shipments down 1.8% (actual: up 10.2%).
- Overall lens shipments down 0.7% (actual: up 7%).
So, last year the camera companies—who all contribute their views to the yearly CIPA forecast—were pessimistic and then that turned out to be wrong. That, by the way, is one of the reasons why there was a lot of out-of-stock happening in 2024, particularly early in the year: the CIPA estimates are based upon Japanese companies actual production forecasts. At the time of last year's CP+, everyone had scaled back their production estimates. Given that the companies are mostly pessimistic again this year, if demand continues as in 2024, we're going to have more shortages.
However, we're now in a different economic environment. The likelihood of a trade war and a recession have been raised dramatically, and neither of those would be good for camera and lens sales. Here in the US, most people don't realize that the government is the largest employer, and if you fire even 5% of the government staffing plus remove a similar number of illegal immigrants, that is a huge economic drag on the economy, large enough to be felt by everyone. Most macroeconomic models are now flashing red.
Curiously, big business CEOs seem to be quietly backing what's happening in the US, mostly because they believe that their regulatory constrictions will be loosened. However, the real problem is going to be consumer demand. With fewer consumers (even illegal migrants consume basic things) and fewer people working, demand will absolutely go down. The Fed just reversed their projection of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 to a decline, which is a clear sign that the demand curve may already be down.
So while the vibes were briefly positive in Yokohama last week, the reality is that camera makers have a lot to contend with this coming year, at least here in the US, and by extension, Europe (the two together are about half of the camera market). Their go-to response will be to micromanage where products go, which likely means China and the home market get more units, plus large potential markets such as India will look more inviting.
We'll see how it plays out. I will say that predicting anything for the coming year is a giant game of uncertainty. Let's hope that next year's CP+ will be another one of positivity, but that's not my current bet.
