I look all around me and see people making bad decisions. Decisions that negatively impact their life. I see it in politics, I see it in money handling, I see it in car/home choice, I see it in all kinds of shopping.
Let me start with a pretty clear example. It's impossible to get accurate information about gambling and lotteries—every supposed statistic seems to disagree with another—but suffice it to say that just in the US people are likely spending in the hundreds of billions of dollars a year in hopes of striking it rich via betting. My definition of a casino is a building into which you walk with a dollar and walk out with 85 cents. Why would you even walk into such a building? Oh right, it has a volcano, fountains, gondolas, or something else that seems interesting and makes you believe you're in a different country (time period, planet, whatever).
Why am I writing about gambling? Because it's pretty much the definition of making a bad decision. The expected outcome is stacked so deeply against you that it's the equivalent of a hail mary pass when a touchdown probably won't win the game for you. On the other side of the coin you'll be putting into the gambling slot machine, the Big Companies enticing you to part with your money are taking in Big Bucks. Even Disney is into gambling now, with ESPN BET. And in it to the point where I was surprised to see a commercial for ESPN BET where the on-air personalities were touting the fact that they had betting accounts. Oh dear, nothing can go wrong with that, can it?
We're coming up on the time of year where photographers make many bad decisions. My prediction is that the photo industry will have a very good final quarter this year, and it's because you're overbuying to your actual need. More pixels? Yes, please. Faster frame rates? Give it to me. Wide aperture lenses? Oh, gotta have that for my snapshots.
Curiously, this week I answered a number of emails from long-time DSLR users who are starting to think they're being left behind with the same basic answer: stick with what you have. You haven't outgrown it, and you haven't identified any way in which your photography will get better with a mirrorless camera.
The irony in me writing that you probably don't need any new gear is that I have to keep up with the latest and greatest in order to provide clear, accurate, and rational advice. That's not lost on me. But my decisions about gear to acquire for long-term testing are business decisions, not a personal "I gotta have it" choice.
So, before we get into the actual holiday buying period, let me get you prepared for it. Here's a set of things you should think about and come to terms with before you start clicking the Submit Order button:
- What's holding you back? Your photography is at some level. What, if anything, is holding that back from moving to a higher level? As I've noted many times before, it might not be gear; you'll often get better faster with instruction, experimentation, and practice. Take the time now to do a level-headed, honest evaluation of where you are photographically, what you want to achieve, and what's really holding you back from getting there. You might be surprised at how little photo gear makes that list.
- Are you still a child playing Ask Santa? Oh to be young and carefree again! I remember perusing all those catalogs and making wish lists and believing that all those things marketed at me would change my life. A few did, but it turns out that they weren't the ones I wrote Santa asking for ;~). Is your love language receiving gifts? If you answered yes and you're giving yourself gifts, what does that say? Note that for "receiving gifts" to have a meaningful impact, the thought put into it is as important as the gift itself. Make sure that anything you're just out and out wishing for is meaningful, not just a cry in the dark for a random reward.
- How new does new have to be? New things get old. Sometimes incredibly fast. Are you just wanting something new for new's sake, or did a just-released product actually fix a problem that you're currently experiencing? It's important to make this distinction. Marketing departments all over the world are spending large amounts of time and money trying to convince you of the former. The smart decision is always predicated on the latter.
- Will there be a cascade effect? I noted my advice to some DSLR users, above. Buying something entirely new—e.g. mirrorless for a DSLR user—tends to trigger a cascade of buying. It's not just a new camera, but maybe you decide you should try (or require) some of those great new lenses, oh and you'll need new batteries and cards and plates and... Some purchase decisions are indeed just a singular purchase decision. For instance, buying an 85mm prime to fill out your set of primes. Other decisions have this tendency to snowball, and rapidly. I can't tell you how much money I've watched people waste chasing a dream camera, constantly switching mounts and triggering repeated cascades of additional buying. Did their photography get better? No. Heck, in a few cases, I would say that their photography got worse, which triggered...wait for it...yet another cascade of buying. Oh, and don't forget that when you go from 12mp to 45mp you're probably going to find you need a new computer, new software, more storage, ad infinitum. Any purchase that triggers cascades needs to be evaluated very carefully, much more carefully than a singular, isolated purchase does.
- What's your budget? If you have a vault's worth of disposable income and aren't into wealth building, perhaps you can ignore this item. But even for those well-endowed folk it's probably wise to sit down and put a realistic number on what you'd consider spending this year (and in full support of the previous bullets). Moreover, if you don't have the cold cash to buy outright and are instead triggering debt, then you're probably getting ready to make some really bad decisions. It's okay to take on debt for something that will produce future earnings/wealth/growth, but just taking on debt to get something now because you want it is quick way to send your money to others and get nothing of use back for it. Cameras and lenses depreciate, so they're not wealth builders sitting on shelves, you need to use them for a business purpose to make wealth. Be especially wary of the 0% interest for 12 months type of offer. That's still debt, even though most people talk themselves into believing it isn't. Those offering such deals know you better than you do. When you don't pay off the full price within the time period, you're suddenly saddled with even higher than normal interest rates. Oops. I'd say this: if you have enough rainy-day savings above and beyond your for-emergency savings to pay back a 0% interest loan, then go for it and keep track of that interest's expiration date. Using other people's money is a wealth-building exercise. But if you can't say that you've got enough savings both for any emergency and to pay back the interest-free loan, you're headed into bad decision territory.
I suggest that you go into the upcoming buying season with a clear plan that answers all of the above questions. Be aware that the camera companies are going to try to disrupt your plan! You'll find them offering discounts on things you didn't expect a discount on, offering bundles, even putting out a few last minute new products to tempt you. The way you avoid making a bad decision is by knowing your real situation and needs, plus being prepared.
Don't put that preparation off. Make sure you can answer all my above questions now, well before the camera makers start fishing for even more sales with holiday special offers.
* Yes, that's an Alan Sherman reference.
