I've been trying to get my head around this ever since I promised last week that I'd write more. But I keep coming back to a question that haunts me (and may haunt Nikon soon): what do I need in a D4 that I don't have in my D3s and D3x?
The answer I keep coming up with is "nothing, maybe some more lens choices." Realistically, if you're a pro and not making money with your current Nikon gear, it's not your D3s or D3x that's the problem. I believe I'll be able to write the same exact line in six months, in a year, in...well, see the problem? At what point in the foreseeable future would a pro still photographer with the current Mega Twins suddenly need something new from Nikon?
The twin problems are these:
- To make a D3s obsolete, a camera is going to have to perform cleanly at ISO 12800 and do something else the D3s can't (say, 11 fps with autofocus). Even though I have a wonderfully open and creative mind, I can't imagine a sensor that's going to do that or what that extra feature would be. (And by inference, you should guess that means I haven't heard about something that would fulfill either of those two requirements.)
- To make a D3x obsolete, you'd need 36mp+ and preserve dynamic range above base ISO better than the D3x does. Now, that sensor I can imagine (a marginally better D7000 sensor at FX size), but I can't imagine how it'll help me sell any more images. Once we get into the megapixel stratosphere, the temptation is to jump to MF. 50% more pixels doesn't really give you a lot of visible difference--we want 100-200% more to create a tangible distance between what we were doing and what we're doing next. Some might say "give me a D4 with 24mp and better high ISO capability than a D3x (the mythical 24mp D3s). The problem I have with that is that the number of times/places where I felt I needed high ISO with high pixel count is relatively small. If I'm carrying my D3s/D3x combo, I just switch to the D3s and am usually happy with 12mp.
So as I try to suss out the bits and pieces I've been hearing about Nikon's upcoming product launches, I keep asking myself whether a new sensor is going to change anything, and my answer keeps coming up "not really."
Tomorrow I'll deal with the first part of those changes, the one we mostly all dread. Yes, I'm talking about video capabilities.