It seems pretty clear we'll have some sort of product announcement from Nikon on September 21st. If it's anything like business-as-normal for Nikon, we'll get a single camera announced (plus lenses). Coupled with the recent articles by Reuters and Nikkei Business Daily, this is about to put Nikon into a rather strange situation vis-a-vis its loyal customer base and its marketing against competitors. Let me explain.
Nikon followers are waiting for four things from Nikon: the D4, the D700 follow up, the D300s follow up, and the mirrorless system. Consider what happens if the Sept 21st announcement is any one, and only one, of those things:
- D4. Pros and organizations would be happy that they could finally do a bit more planning on replacing or augmenting their systems, but the general din of complaint would be overwhelming, because the D4 would actually be interesting to far fewer people than any of the other three. A D4 announcement is important as an announcement of future technology platforms, but not so much as a product that sells in large quantities and satisfies customer demands. Moreover, a D4 announcement is not likely to be quickly followed by shipments, so basically nothing would change in the Nikon DSLR world. Those waiting for any of those other three cameras would be extremely let down and likely we'd hear another round of "I'm switching" complaints, though this time mostly to Sony instead of Canon.
- D700 follow up. Tremendous cheers and excitement would ensue (assuming it was a well-considered update), buying queues would fill up fast, Nikon's credibility as the choice for enthusiasts would be renewed, and all would be right with the world (sarcasm filter now off). But pros and organizations would wonder why Nikon missed their four-year update cycle on the pro product.
- D300s follow up. Probably the second most hoped for scenario, as the expectation is that this product would dull the Sony A77 parade that's been making a lot of noise lately, and it would give serious DX users a camera they've long been waiting for. However, those longing for an affordable FX body update or the pro FX body update would wonder if Nikon is ever going to get around to giving them some love. Still, probably the second-best thing that could happen on September 21st from a Nikon user viewpoint.
- Mirrorless introduction. Amongst Nikon users there's not a tremendous demand for a mirrorless offering, especially one that's likely to be something like a Coolpix P300 with a larger sensor and interchangeable lenses. Here in the US, mirrorless still hasn't taken off, so the problem with this scenario is that a big announcement of mirrorless might play well in Asia, but most of the rest of the world would be wondering where their D4, D700 follow up, and D300s follow up were. Riots would form, Nikon stores attacked...oh wait, I turned sarcasm off, didn't I? (sarcasm about sarcasm filter now turned off).
The only single camera announcement that would have a nearly completely positive response from brand loyalists is the D700 follow up. Moreover, that would put Nikon ahead of Canon's 5DIII introduction, something that's important for them to do, I think.
Now let's flip away from the type of person reading this site (brand loyalist, serious enthusiast, whatever you want to call yourself). Consider what the general market response would be to each of the four possible announcements:
- D4. Yawn. Expected, and not important in the grand scheme of things. When the heck is Nikon going to take on mirrorless and the Sony threat?
- D700 follow up. Interesting. Should position them well against Canon in that smallish-but-important market. But when the heck is Nikon going to take on mirrorless and the Sony threat?
- D300s follow up. Wow. Nikon moved fast to dull the Sony A77 threat. Good. But where's the mirrorless camera, and why are the high-end Nikon users all complaining?
- Mirrorless. This proves that mirrorless is the future, as one of the Big Two have finally made a move. Wait, isn't it kind of small and expensive? And why are all of Nikon's DSLR customers all in an uproar?
September is now a marketing problem for Nikon because it's all about perception. The issue is that, almost no matter what Nikon does later this month, they won't have correctly managed the perceptions of enough of their current and potential customers. As it is, Nikon is making bad moves even before the announcement(s): last night we got a Spartan two sentence statement out of Nikon apparently in response to the Nikkei Business Daily report about the mirrorless camera. That Nikon statement basically said "we haven't announced anything." Gee. We hadn't noticed, thanks for the update.
So, place your bets (and let's hope that double zero doesn't come up).