I think I've said from the beginning that a D4 wouldn't ship until the end of the year. I still expect that we're talking about Dec/Jan ship, no matter when it is announced. Anything else means that Nikon missed a cycle, yet nothing I've heard from any in Nikon or who might have some idea about it has even hinted that might be the case.
FWIW, here's where I stand in expectations at the moment:
- D4 announce unknown, ship around end of year (Dec/Jan/Feb).
- D700 replacement announce soon (Sept), ship late in year.
- D300s replacement I don't expect until 2012.
- Mirrorless I expect to be announced in September, ship soon thereafter.
I would also point out that Nikon is currently still following one of its typical patterns, only in a more dragged out fashion than usual. That pattern is: financial results announcement, Coolpix announcement, system cameras announcement. Often that tends to be a three-week roll. This time we had an extra week between financials and Coolpix, so I suppose we now have some time before systems camera. So, for all those who think Nikon has completely gone off course, no, it doesn't yet seem so, it just seems that they're sailing a little slower this year.