IDC Japan released their 2010 worldwide market share numbers for cameras last week, and it looks like this:
Canon.......19%
Sony..........17.9
Nikon.........12.6
Samsung...11.1
Panasonic..7.6
Kodak........7.4
Olympus....6.1
Fujfilm........4.9
Casio..........4
Pentax........1.5
Other..........7.9
Those numbers include all cameras, compacts through DSLRs, for all worldwide markets. Companies gaining market share in 2010 were Sony, Nikon and Samsung. Companies losing market share in 2010 were Kodak, Olympus, Fujifilm, Casio, and Pentax. Canon and Panasonic market shares remained the same in 2009 and 2010.
I had to dig to find some older numbers. Back in 2002, for instance, Nikon had 12% of the total market share (Sony was on top with Canon close behind, both well over 20%). Curiously, Nikon's share maxed out at 14% in 2004 before dropping below 10% before returning back to 12.6% last year. The surprise in the mix is how fast Samsung has risen to be a contender, easily passing Panasonic in a relatively short period of time.
In interchangeable lens camera sales (DSLRs and mirrorless), the IDC press release indicated that Canon held 44.5% of the worldwide market in 2010, Nikon 29.8%, and Sony was third with 11.9%.
Note that 2011 is going to show market disruption. Samsung, for instance, wasn't particularly impacted by the earthquake, while several other makers have camera parts or assembly plants that are in an area where both the quake and reduced power will produce great changes on their ability to manufacture (see two stories down).
I subscribe to the old Ries and Trout philosophy: you need to be #1 or #2 in a market, or perhaps #3 with some prospect of making #2. If you can't make those positions you are going to have a tough time staying profitable and generating a good ROI on your R&D investment. Right now, the power players are Canon, Sony, Nikon, and Samsung. They all have strengths that have them competing for #1 and #2 in multiple camera markets. Panasonic and Olympus arguably have some niche strength (mirrorless and high-end compacts). Kodak and Casio are falling out of contention in the compact markets where they compete with no sign of turnaround. Fujifilm has been in a constant slippage for some time. They used to be a contender in the top three, now they've slipped to eighth and are continuing to slip. Pentax is about to be passed by Vivitar, a rebrander.
Techcrunch this weekend had an article about popularity of various cameras on Flickr. The results should greatly disturb the camera companies, and it should absolutely scare Kodak, Fujifilm, and Casio out of their wits: the iPhone 4 is about to become the most popular camera used on Flickr (right now, the D90 holds that spot). Compact cameras have a long history of decline on Flickr, which is why Kodak, Fujifilm, and Casio should be worried: camera phones are replacing compact cameras very rapidly now, and those companies only make compact cameras. Next year at Best Buy, expect the rack of compact cameras to no longer be a two-sided 40' counter. Big Box stores do not waste square footage on products with declining markets. Note how the desktop/laptop computer space at Best Buy flipped in the last two years.
Those that know me well probably can guess what I'm going to write next: all of the camera companies are failing. None have managed to reinvent the camera and bring it into the 21st century, where bits fly through the air at the control of the user. None have managed to be particularly good at marketing their product, let alone distributing it (I'm looking hard at you, Panasonic). Most of the companies are basically caught in a rut where the same players win for the same reasons. Just doing what the other guy is doing is not going to win you more customers.
Unfortunately, the quake has many of the companies just looking at something even simpler: how to keep assembly operations going at levels near what they were before the quake. Things are not looking good in the camera industry right now. Exepct next year's IDC numbers to show some major changes.