On Friday Nikon will release their first half fiscal year results, and I expect it to be a very interesting and confusing report. On the one hand, I believe they'll announce record results for the first half and point to strong sales across the board.
On the other hand, this has not been a great year for Nikon imaging, despite sales numbers: (1) they under anticipated demand in DSLR body and lens sales and have had long-lasting and persistent outages of key products; (2) the Sendai quake shook up more than the factory floor--it disrupted the whole FX body transition; and (3) the Thailand flood has now submerged the DX body lineup and probably two important upcoming models there, too. Demand for Nikon DSLR product is at an all time high. Nikon's ability to produce it is at an all time low. And it's not just Nikon: many of their parts suppliers are co-located, so have suffered through the same disasters. For example, Sony hasn't said what sensors were produced at their flooded Thailand plant, but given their actions, I wouldn't be surprised if it was sensors that they and Nikon use in DSLRs.
NikonUSA at this point appears to have cancelled all holiday promotions in the DSLR range. Traditionally, Black Friday later this month has been the start of a period in which Nikon aggressively markets DSLRs. Probably not this year (and Sony is in the same boat). Canon, meanwhile, appears to have realized that they might have a temporarily advantage here, so expect them to ramp up their late year promotions.
For Nikon DSLR enthusiasts--which includes most of you reading this story--it's already been a meager year at best: D5100, 40mm DX, 50mm f/1.8G. 2010 wasn't exactly a hot year for new Nikon gear either (2 DSLRs, 9 lenses), but 2011 has proven (so far) to be almost forgettable in terms of product.
I still expect to see new product announced, maybe even before the end of the year. Basically, Nikon will likely announce things just as soon as they have a real handle on when full production would begin on an item and stock would reach users. We may see a trickle of announcements for lenses and perhaps a body announcement later this year. Perhaps we'll get a better general idea about that in this week's financials press conference, though I doubt Nikon will say anything about specific products. Whatever does get to stores between now and the end of the year is likely to sell out and be in short supply for some time, though.
It hasn't been all that great a year for me, either. While I was traveling this fall the byThom offices have been flooded twice, and now that I am home I've been treated to a three-day power outage (due to the unusual October snow storm). So I'm with Nikon on this one: let's just work our way through with all the problems 2011 presented us and just gear up for a better 2012. 2011 turned out to be a real trick. Hopefully 2012 will be a real treat.