Here's a sequence of numbers for you to contemplate: 96, 93, 90, 86. If you recognize that as something related to the yen/dollar relationship as it has impacted Nikon recently, you're correct (first half of their last financial year, second half of their last financial year, end of their last financial year, and currently). The forecast for the dollar/yen relationship for the next nine months in the Nikon's financials is 90 yen to the dollar. But the yen is currently at 86 to the dollar, an approximately 4.5% drop. Nikon sells about a third of their cameras and lenses in the US. If that trend of numbers continues, camera and lens prices will be going up in the US.
Yes, a lot of the production is done in Thailand and China now, where the currency fluctuation isn't as volatile. Unfortunately, many of the key parts are still cost in yen. Plus many of the higher quality lenses and three of the pro bodies are made in Japan. Let's just say that the pricing pressure continues to be in the wrong direction for those of us in the US. This is one of the reasons, for example, that the price of the new 200-400mm lens is up about 10% in the US over the one it replaced.
So where does this end? In 1971 the yen was at an average of about 348 to a dollar. The yen appreciated pretty steadily until it bottomed at around 100 in 1994, then bounced around in the low hundreds until 2007. Since then, the yen has resumed its downward trend (which again, is appreciation against the dollar). I'm betting the yen will go still lower, perhaps as low as 82 before pulling back up a bit (if I were truly a betting man I'd put real money on that, because if I'm reading FOREX futures quotes right and I'm right about the trend, I could make a healthy amount of money off that bet). We're already in dangerous ground for Nikon, who's been banking on 90. How about this: I'd gladly pay Nikon for a D4 today at the 90 rate ;~). Anyone in the Tokyo headquarters reading this and want to take me up on it?