The Japanese camera makers see their own camera market (i.e. sales in Japan) very well. Too well. They often over-rely on it to gauge what they should be doing next.
Well, if that's the case, there must be some panic afoot in Japan. Consider the top 20 selling interchangeable lens cameras in Japan from Jan 1 through Dec 23 (camera models ordered from best selling to worst within brand):
- Canon 37.9% (Kiss2, Kiss3, 50D, 5DII, 7D, 1000D)
- Nikon 28% (D90, D5000, D60, D40, D3000)
- Panasonic 8.5% (G1, GF1, GH1)
- Olympus 4.3% (E-P1, E-520)
- Pentax 4.3% (K-m, K-x)
- Sony 4% (A300, A350)
Those 20 cameras account for 87% of the DSLR sales in Japan. Nikon and Canon do pretty well in the 13% of cameras I haven't identified so far--add those in and Canon tops 40% and Nikon nears 35%.
Still, we've got four m4/3 cameras grabbing 11.5% of the home market. Think that got anyone's attention? And Pentax's two low-end models outselling Sony's. Think that got Sony's attention? That 5DII being the lone FX body to break the top 20 (at #13 and 2.1%), think that got Nikon's attention? Or how about the D3000 not living up to its potential (14th and 1.8% for a half year of sales isn't matching what either the D40 or D60 did)?
Oh, and does video sell DSLRs? #13, #17, and #19 are highly competent HD video cameras (1080i, variable frame rate, etc.). Hard to say, but it doesn't really look like high end video is truly selling DSLRs en masse yet.
No, the camera companies are atwitter with nervousness. Which is why they should read the following article.