Today Nikon finally introduced the lens that should have been available ten years ago: a basic fast prime for DX. I was amused by the press release quote: "...natural focal length that has been the staple of photography since its inception." Unless, of course, you were a DX user for the past decade, that is. Perhaps Nikon finally got tired of seeing Sigma selling so many 30mm lenses to D40, D40x, and D60 users.
Officially, this new lens is the Nikkor 35mm f/1.8G AF-S DX. There's nothing especially exciting about the specs other than the US$199 price. The lens is basically what you'd expect, with perhaps the exception of only a rounded seven blade aperture opening (NikonUSA's press release says nine, incorrectly). Available in March.
This new lens officially cancels the "any DX prime" entry on my Waiting for Nikon list, however I've renamed it to "any DX wide angle prime" as we're still waiting for something wider than 35mm.
Nikons at PMA?
We're getting close to PMA and the question many are asking is what DSLRs will Nikon launch at PMA. My guess at an answer is "none." I'm guessing that we won't see another camera introduction from Nikon until late Spring at the earliest. The DX lens introduction just made doesn't make sense as a separate announcement if there is another DX body imminent. That leaves only FX bodies as a potential announcement at PMA, and it seems a little too soon for another one.
Nikon Financial News
Feb 5--Nikon has reported their third quarter financial results (Oct-Dec 2008), and the news isn't as grim as many companies have reported, but is still not the kind of news you want to see. Overall, Nikon remains profitable through their fiscal year, but had a small loss in the third quarter. The Precision division (semiconductor equipment) was the major contributor to that loss, as was a loss on investment securities. The Imaging division (cameras, lenses) still was profitable.
But the numbers are still disturbing. While Nikon sold more cameras and lenses than last year, profits were considerably down. Some of this was pricing pressures due to competition, some of it was due to the "sharp appreciation of the yen."
In the 3rd quarter (again, October to December of last year), Nikon sold 1.05m DSLRs, 1.42m lenses, and 2.79m Coolpix. DSLR body and lens volume was up 23% and 18% over the previous year's third quarter, respectively. Coolpix volume was up only 3% over last year's numbers. But the grim part of the forward forecast was this: "estimated net sales of [the current quarter] will drop to half" that of the previous year. All those folks saying that Nikon's price increases would drop demand: well, Nikon is expecting demand to drop in half. As I wrote in at least one post elsewhere, I didn't think that Nikon would raise prices due to the currency fluctuation and expect demand to remain near normal. The comment at their results presentation seems to confirm that. I had guessed that Nikon could sustain a 50% drop in demand at the new pricing and remain profitable. I'm off by a little bit: Nikon's prediction is a slight loss, though apparently some of that loss has to do with furloughing production capability.
Inventories are up a bit, though Nikon says they expect the camera and lens inventories to be back down to "normal" levels by the end of March. Nikon expects to lose money in the Imaging division for the current quarter, by the way, due to "deterioration of Cost of Sales ratio because of production adjustment."
Nikon's new estimates of market share for their entire fiscal year (ends March 31, 2009) are 35% of the DSLR market, 46% of the interchangeable lens market, and 9% of the compact camera market.
At least one reader asked me if Nikon would stop R&D in the current environment. They have indeed scaled back on some R&D, though it continues to run at historic highs as a percentage of sales.
One thing to watch: Nikon is now working with the assumption that the yen will be 90 to the dollar, and 115 to the Euro (the old numbers were 95 and 125). If the yen stabilizes at these numbers for awhile, prices should remain at the new current levels or even drop if demand goes down. If the dollar and/or Euro recover against the yen, we'll see rebates again. But if the yen continues to appreciate, as some expect, prices may not yet have reached a peak. So, here in the US, take a peak at the yen/dollar exchange rate from time to time. From 87-93 probably means no change in pricing other than due to demand. Outside that range likely means pricing changes. But Nikon warned: "calm-down of yen appreciation in the short term is not expected." Echoing my "bumpy year" post a couple of weeks ago, Nikon expects "stormy weather will continue" in the foreseeable future.
The Biannual Coolpix Refresh (or is it Restale?)
Eight new Coolpix, no new excitement. In the low-end Life (L) series, we get updates of the L16 and L18 (the new L19 and L20, respectively). For some reason, Nikon thinks these cameras will compete without almost any wide angle ability (41mm and 38mm respectively). The L100 is something new and seems at least a little better positioned and featured, almost like a P80/P90 baby brother. All three new L cameras use AA batteries. Still, I think Panasonic will continue to move forward in market share against Coolpix in this category.
In the middle we have the Style (S) series updates. The S210 gets replaces by the S220 and the S610 by the S620. The S230 and S630 seem to be slightly new branches of the line, though they might simply be a modest repositioning of an existing product to see if it holds more traction than previous or current models.
Finally, at the Performance (P) end we get the P90, which replaces the P80. Big news is more telephoto zoom (now 24x!). Still no raw.
Overall, not an impressive set of updates. In a lot of cases I see trimming of costs or features. Battery lives on some of the cameras are somewhat down (the P90 battery life is only about four-fifths of its predecessor for some odd reason). "Rounded" seems to be a new design theme as each new generation of Coolpix seems to lose more of their previously boxy shapes in some way or another.
I'm seeing nothing in this batch of Coolpix to get excited about. Nikon's been just to the lower side of average for almost all their compact cameras for quite some time now, and this set of launches does nothing to change that. That really leaves them competing on price, which is, of course, still eroding in this market. Personally, I like what Panasonic is doing best. There's more innovation and performance in the latest series of Panny compacts than I see in, oh, the last three generations of Coolpix. Nikon has about 9% of the compact market, and I just don't see that budging much, if any.