Less than two years ago Nikon was hitting on all cylinders in the DSLR market. Everything from the D40 to the D3 was putting in impressive sales numbers, and Nikon market share eventually hit 39%, putting it in a tie with Canon for DSLR volume for the first time in...well, my detailed records don't back that far, but it would have to be pre F4, I think. Today, however, things don't look so hot. I calculate that Nikon's market share has slipped to 33%, and it is almost certainly headed down from there.
One problem is that we're in the middle of one of Nikon's historical dips. These come because the main technology changes come with the pro platform every four years. 1999 (D1), 2003 (D2h), 2007 (D3). We've still got almost two years remaining before we get the next look at what Nikon thinks is the future.
In the meantime, we get these "s" releases (D300s, D3s, probably a D700s) and can-you-tell-we-changed-anything low end iterations (D40x, D60, D3000). Meanwhile, Canon and Sony are offset against Nikon's cycle: Canon is in the sequence where we'll see new sensors and models (the 7D is one example, the 1DIV is coming soon); Sony is now a sensor ahead of Nikon in the DX cycle, and about to pop its big D300 competitor, the followup to the A700. So Nikon's mid-term offerings are going to look weak comparatively, we're going to hear more and more of the "I'm going to switch" chorus, and Nikon is going to lose DSLR market share.
Three possibilities that aren't "s" releases or minor reworks exist:
- The high-rez D700. For convenience sake, I refer to this as the D700x, though I do not expect a camera with a high-resolution FX sensor and D700-like body to be called that. Failure to produce this model in a timely fashion just exacerbates the strain that Nikon's DSLR group will come under and increase the need for a D4 to be a real game changer.
- The APS Compact. The E-P1, GF1, G1, and GH1 have made a huge impact in Japan, and it's clear that all the other makers are looking at that success and planning their own entries in the mirror-less DSLR or APS compact realm. Heck, even Leica has announced one (the compact APS X1). Nikon had but fumbled a real opportunity here. As I once outlined, they could have stripped a D40x down into an E-P1 like camera pretty easily. Now if that's all they do, it won't be enough. We'll know soon enough. I expect Nikon's answer will show up at PMA 2010.
- The retro cam. What happened to the anniversary retro camera remains unclear. Nikon used to do this type of one-off, low volume projects with regularity, and I know there was a special digital version of an older camera planned for a mostly-Japan release. It seems to have disappeared off the radar, and for what reason, I don't know.
The bottom line is this: I think we're in the classic Nikon mid-term doldrums. Unfortunately, we're also at the point where market saturation has hit the DSLR sales. Most every one that wants one has one, so the big opportunity is to get an existing user to step up to a newer model. That makes those three possibilities I just outlined even more critical for Nikon than usual. The D3000, D5000, and D300s aren't exactly "gotta step-up" cameras for D40x, D60, D80, and D300 users, after all.
Message to Nikon: you need an outside-the-box group working at counter cycle to your pro generation group.