Strange things are going on with inventory of various Nikon products, especially the DSLRs. As I reported earlier, the D300 came off rebate and is in short supply. But if you hunt around enough, you discover that the D40, D60, D90, and D300 are all in short supply and out of stock in some outlets.
When this first started happening, I thought it might just be dealers cutting back on their orders. But given that B&H and some other large volume dealers seem to be having the same problem, there has to be an issue of supply from Nikon involved. As I noted in my report on Nikon's full year financials, as recently as early February Nikon was estimating lower sales volume than they actually achieved by the end of March.
I've always expected at least one additional Nikon DSLR announcement in the late spring. Given the pricing of the D5000, it isn't a replacement for the D40 and D60. Thus, one of the models I'm expecting is a new low-end model, as the D40 is really showing its age, and the D60 is also using parts that are no longer being used by other cameras in the lineup. So it's possible that Nikon was trying to phase out these two cameras for a replacement and didn't quite get the forecasts right due to overestimating the impact of the recession. With other companies introducing new low-end models, notably Sony, this puts Nikon in a vulnerable position, at least for the short term.
Of course, the question is what would a new low-end Nikon DSLR look like? The D5000 doesn't exactly have an abundance of features that can be cut, after all. The pivot LCD is one, but then what? A D4000 can't really be a D5000 without the pivot display, can it? I don't think so. The best I can come up with is: 3-sensor AF instead of 11, no pivot display, no viewfinder overlays (grid, etc.), no bracketing, no GPS support, some simpler settings (no choices other than On/Off for Active D-lighting). Is that enough to carve out a lower model? Something doesn't feel right about that, so there's something I'm missing, I think. Still, I think a D4000 is more likely within the next two months than not.
At the other end, we have the D300. From what I hear, there is another boatload of D300's on the way to distribution. Thus, we should see some easing of shortages for that model soon. I've always predicted that a D400 model would appear in 2009. My best guess was in fall, which gets me back to the "did Nikon cut too much" thought. If indeed we're now down to the last production run of the D300 and I was right about a fall introduction, then D300's are going to be scarce during the summer months.
Nikon is predicting 1.7m units sold in the first half of their new year (started April 1st) versus 1.87m units sold in the first half of the same period last year. That was a period during which the D60 and D700 had impacts on the numbers. After analyzing Nikon's numbers closely, there have to be at least two new cameras (the D5000 is one) being built and sold during the Apr through September time period for the estimates to make sense. The question is whether a D300 replacement is one of those. If I'm right and a D4000 appears soon and a D400 before the end of the summer, I'll bet that Nikon's estimates are once again low.
The critical element for a D4000 is, well, nothing unless they change the sensor again, which I wouldn't expect. Thus, there's little holding a D4000 back and I would estimate it to be launched sooner rather than later. The critical element for a D400 is the sensor, period. While there may be body and feature tweaks--mostly due to Live View and video changes, I'd think--it's the sensor where a D400 has to distinguish itself. And I haven't heard much rumbling about new DX sensors maturing in Sony's R&D, so that leaves three possibilities: (1) we wait for Sony, (2) the D300's sensor will be tweaked for video, or (3) Nikon has their own sensor up their sleeve.
I would also point out that Nikon hasn't had a "big" announcement yet this year. By that I don't mean a high-end product, but rather the type of hyped event that Nikon likes to do to roll out multiple products simultaneously. Note that the lens announcements have been one at a time, too. Historically, summer has been a time when Nikon seems to do this type of multiple product event. If I were paranoid and self-centered, I'd say that Nikon likes to do these events when I'm traveling ;~). So, the question is, when is my next long travel session? August (though I'm doing shorter trips before that). But I'm betting we'll see more announcements before then, though. I'll even pull a date out of my hat: fourth week of June.
And, no, before the rumors start flying that say that I know something about what's going to happen that week, no, I don't. "Out of my hat" means I made it up. It's a wild guess. But I don't see how Nikon is going to make their estimated numbers for the half year if there are no announcements until August, so something needs to happen before then. I've planted my stake at June 23rd.