The missing lenses (I've just updated my most recent article on the subject with some third party suggestions) have me very perplexed. I believe that there are three lenses in production (two primes and a zoom) that have not been announced. I also believe there are several more that have been designed and may be ready for production.
Nikon's recent camera body announcements were strange: we got a mostly FX announcement for a future lens (70-200mm II) with DX bodies, and we got a DX lens (85mm Micro-Nikkor) with an FX body. That seems a little silly to me. I suspect it's a simplistic "see, we're not forgetting or other customers" tactic, but a simple "we'll announce additional FX lenses with our next FX body announcement" would have sufficed for the 70-200mm (especially since the lens will ship about the same time as the D3s does).
So the questions remaining are these:
- Will Nikon announce more lenses this year? My answer: most likely. We're two lenses shy of "normal" expectation for the year, and we know there are some unannounced ones in production. I doubt these will wait for PMA announcements in early 2010.
- Will lenses be announced without a camera body? My answer: possibly, but I think unlikely. Nikon has done that in the past, but normally in periods where no camera body was announced (the 2002 to 2005 period where there were only three camera bodies announced had three lens-only announcements, for example). When there are short gaps between body announcements, lens announcements don't tend to be done separately. I think we're in a short-gap timeframe at the moment.
- What camera body would new lens announcements come with? My answer: the most likely ones would be the missing D700x-type camera or yet another low-end body (D4000). Even though bodies delivered late in the year are the bane of camera stores, both would make sense for Nikon. They need better consumer bodies to stay competitive (10mp, no movie mode doesn't cut it). They need a D700x to compete with the 5DII/A850/A900. Both would help stall switchers making Christmas decisions. I give another body this year a slightly better than 50/50 chance, with the DX consumer choice being the more likely one due to how easy it should be (in which case we once again get FX lenses announced with DX body--sense a pattern?). But a D700x body would be the better choice for where Nikon's strengths are right now, and better match the lenses about to pop. Personally, I want the D700x-type body for my upcoming trip to Japan.