Dream Nikon DSLR Lineup

Original 9/27/04
Updated 10/3/04: Voting now closed.
Updated 11/1/04: Latest reports say name is D80, not D90
Updated 1/28/05: Updated D50, D200, D3h (see section in red)

I've always tried to provoke thinking about Nikon cameras by imagining what the next model should be like, providing what I've called a "wish list." In the past, that's been for a single camera. I think it's time to design the perfect Nikon DSLR lineup, not just an individual model. Because I like to keep this in the realm of possible (or even likely), I'm not going to go to the extremes I'm doing in the 7th issue of my Nikon DSLR Report, where I really tackle my dream DSLR. Instead, I'll simply say the following table is what I'd like to see Nikon's DSLR lineup look like at the end of 2005.

Apparently, my list isn't very far off. One of Nikon's general managers gave an interview to a Japanese photographic press company (Impress) at Photokina that had a few nuggets of future information in it. Specifically, Nikon will have five lines of DSLR cameras. Three are absolutely known (the D70, the D100 replacement, and the D2h/D2x line). The two unknown ones bracket the D70 and D100 replacement, so one is likely to be a bit like the D50 I list here. The D80 I show below is likely to be the D100 replacement. That leaves an unknown line between the D80 and D2h. Another comment in the interview is that a full frame DSLR would be possible now, but would cost ~1m yen (~US$10,000). Nikon doesn't seem to think there's enough market at that price point to justify producing it; APS sensor size will be in the lineup from bottom to top for the time being, with the D2x being the top. Another comment seemed to indicate that a revised LBCAST sensor (four channel readout) has been produced, most likely for a revision of the D2h, though nothing was said about resolution. So, other than the FM3D and D3 columns here, there's a pretty good chance that the first five cameras will be in Nikon's 2005 lineup (though there may be some specification differences compared to what I list here).

As the update note above says, voting on these DSLR models is now closed (for those of you arriving late, I had the ability to vote for the cameras you'd have in your kit at the end of 2005 if they arrived as specified below; I set myself an arbitrary vote limit of 500 in order to have the results in time for my next newsletter, but it went well above that before I closed it off). I'll have a full discussion of the votes in the next issue of my Nikon DSLR Report newsletter. The short answer is that Nikon would probably be shocked at the results, as they don't match up well with their (assumed) priorities. Just to give you an example, the upcoming D2x only beat out the D50, D70, and D2h (barely) in my poll. Yes, that means that the D80 (nee D90), D3, and FM3D all received more votes. Thanks to all of you who voted.

Some of the dream lineup has appeared. Others are still in process. I've left the chart pretty much intact from the way I originally proposed and guessed. Let's look at how things turned out for the models one by one:

The D50 turned out remarkably as I expected. My price is a little low (though it's getting close), and I missed the SD card and faster USB port, but most of the rest was accurate.

The D80 turned out to be the D200. My primary mistake was in the sensor, as the original rumors were centered around 8mp CMOS and I also thought that was all it would take to be competitive ( it turned out to be a 10mp CCD). I guessed at a better AF sensor (the CAM1300) than the other consumer Nikons, and batted .500 on that (yes, a better AF sensor; but no, not the CAM1300). Again, my price was low, though in the right range.

The D2hMkII will actually likely to turn out to be the D3h, which I expect to be introduced at Photokina 2006. I've made a couple of small changes (in red) from the original chart (originally I hypothesized 8mp).

The D2x was pretty much dead on, other than the price, on which, again I was low.

The FM3D rumors still persist and prototypes exist, but with the shutdown of FM3a manufacturing, I now wonder whether it will ever appear.

The D3 in the chart below is an unspecified model number in Nikon's future plan. I'm not sure whether it will be called the D3x or something else. I expect a HS Crop that gives the 1.5x size as a secondary frame size choice.